Drivers of Green Growth and Carbon Emissions in Vietnam: A Wavelet and Quantile-on-Quantile Examination

Abstract

This paper examines the dynamic interrelationships between renewable energy use, environmental protection tax, and human capital quality in driving green growth and carbon emissions in Vietnam from 1995 to 2024. A novel Green Growth Index is constructed using FinBERT, a financial domain natural language processing model, to capture policy-driven progress toward sustainability. By integrating wavelet analysis and quantile-on-quantile regression, the study disentangles time–frequency dynamics and quantile-dependent effects. The results indicate that renewable energy and environmental taxes contribute to reducing CO₂ emissions, while human capital significantly enhances green growth but also increases emissions. The study highlights the dynamic and asymmetric relationships among these variables and provides policy implications for achieving Vietnam’s green transition.