Solar Use Dynamics in Uganda: Household Characteristics and Energy Choice Factors

Abstract

This study analyzes household solar photovoltaic (PV) adoption in Uganda using data from the 2018–2019 National Panel Survey and a multivariate probit modeling approach, jointly examining how financial, demographic, and contextual factors shape energy source choices. By explicitly distinguishing between grid-connected and off-grid households, the analysis captures heterogeneity in access constraints, enabling more refined insights into energy transitions. Empirical results reveal that household income, savings, and education significantly predict solar PV uptake among non-grid-connected communities, with rural households likely to adopt, especially when these attributes are present. In contrast, grid access and urban residence decrease the likelihood of solar adoption, emphasizing a substitution effect between grid electricity and solar solutions; additionally, gender and savings play more pronounced roles in rural areas, where male-headed households and those maintaining savings show higher adoption rates. The findings recommend targeted interventions—such as microfinance expansion, rural savings initiatives, and enhanced information campaigns—to lower upfront barriers and accelerate solar PV adoption, while emphasizing the need for integrated, equitable strategies that blend centralized and decentralized energy pathways for sustainable development in Uganda.