What are Driving ASEAN’s Environmental Commitments? Evidence from Multinomial Logit Model

Abstract

Environmental degradation continues to escalate despite ASEAN countries having ratified various global instruments such as the Ramsar Convention, Basel Convention, CBD, UNFCCC, AATHP, Stockholm Convention, Kyoto Protocol, and Paris Agreement. This condition is reflected in the low Environmental Performance Index (EPI) scores, where most ASEAN countries rank near the bottom globally, indicating that international commitments have not translated into effective domestic implementation. This study aims to examine the factors driving variations in ASEAN countries’ participation in international environmental agreements and to assess whether ecological pressures and socio-economic characteristics influence their engagement. Using a Multinomial Logit Model, the dependent variable is categorized based on the number of agreements ratified, while the independent variables include CO₂ emissions, GDP per capita, population growth, electricity consumption, trade openness, and population density. The dataset covers the period 1994–2024 and is sourced from the World Bank and ASEAN countries’ ratification statuses of global environmental agreements. The results show that CO₂ emissions and population growth consistently increase the probability of a country falling into higher participation categories, while fossil-fuel-based electricity consumption and trade openness are negatively associated with multilateral commitments. GDP per capita and population density exhibit no significant effects. These findings indicate that ASEAN’s participation in environmental agreements is more of an adaptive response to ecological pressures rather than a reflection of economic capacity or domestic technological readiness