Upstream Gas Portfolio Optimization under Fiscal Rules and Uncertainty: A Systematic Review and Bibliometric Mapping

Authors

  • Marcelino Freitas Naikosou Department of Petroleum Engineering, Faculty of Mining and Petroleum Engineering, Bandung Institute of Technology, Bandung, Indonesia; & Energy Economics Laboratory, Faculty of Mining and Petroleum Engineering, Bandung Institute of Technology, Bandung, Indonesia,
  • Adityawarman Adityawarman Department of Petroleum Engineering, Faculty of Mining and Petroleum Engineering, Bandung Institute of Technology, Bandung, Indonesia; & Energy Economics Laboratory, Faculty of Mining and Petroleum Engineering, Bandung Institute of Technology, Bandung, Indonesia,
  • Mario Viana Guterres Department of Petroleum Engineering, Faculty of Mining and Petroleum Engineering, Bandung Institute of Technology, Bandung, Indonesia; & Energy Economics Laboratory, Faculty of Mining and Petroleum Engineering, Bandung Institute of Technology, Bandung, Indonesia,
  • Teodoro Marcos Mota Department of Petroleum Engineering, Faculty of Mining and Petroleum Engineering, Bandung Institute of Technology, Bandung, Indonesia; & Energy Economics Laboratory, Faculty of Mining and Petroleum Engineering, Bandung Institute of Technology, Bandung, Indonesia,
  • Nabil Visi Samawi Department of Petroleum Engineering, Faculty of Mining and Petroleum Engineering, Bandung Institute of Technology, Bandung, Indonesia; & Energy Economics Laboratory, Faculty of Mining and Petroleum Engineering, Bandung Institute of Technology, Bandung, Indonesia,
  • Tutuka Ariadji Department of Petroleum Engineering, Faculty of Mining and Petroleum Engineering, Bandung Institute of Technology, Bandung, Indonesia,
  • Utjok W. R. Siagian Department of Petroleum Engineering, Faculty of Mining and Petroleum Engineering, Bandung Institute of Technology, Bandung, Indonesia; & Center for Research on Energy Policy, Bandung Institute of Technology, Bandung, Indonesia,
  • Agus Yodi Gunawan Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Bandung Institute of Technology, Bandung, Indonesia,
  • Danang Hayu Prenata Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Trisakti, Jakarta, Indonesia.
  • Estanislau de Sousa Saldanha Graduate School, MBA Program, Dili Institute of Technology (DIT), Timor-Leste

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.22235

Keywords:

Upstream Gas, Portfolio Optimization, Fiscal Rules, Capital Rationing, Stochastic Optimization, Real Options, Cash-flow Constraints

Abstract

This study combines a systematic review (in accordance with PRISMA) and bibliometric mapping (VOSviewer & Bibliometrix) to explain how upstream gas portfolio decisions are optimized when fiscal rules limit annual cash flow. The Scopus 2005–2025 corpus of Title–Abstract–Keywords searches (1,149 records) confirm two pillars of the method: stochastic/robust optimization for portfolio sequencing and real options for flexibility in investment time and scale. Trend analysis, intellectual networks, and keyword evolution show the dominance of analytical-decision and reservoir planning themes; conversely, fiscal overlays such as withdrawal caps, cash-flow/budget constraints are still rarely formalized in mainstream models. The SLR synthesis shows that explicitly coding multi-period liquidity constraints materially changes project selection, sequencing, peak cash, and break-even timing compared to the baseline without constraints. The policy implication is a shift from hard caps to multi-period designed caps (with liquidity floors and countercyclical elements) integrated directly into the optimization framework. To balance value and fiscal stability, we recommend a gas-centric and modular portfolio that pairs ENPV with downside risk control objectives (e.g., CVaR/peak cash minimization). The main contribution of this study is to map fiscal gaps in the optimization literature and propose a research direction towards an integrated stochastic–real options framework with an overlay of fiscal rules that enables policy frontier reporting (value vs. stability).

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Published

2026-02-08

How to Cite

Naikosou, M. F., Adityawarman, A., Guterres, M. V., Mota, T. M., Samawi, N. V., Ariadji, T., … Saldanha, E. de S. (2026). Upstream Gas Portfolio Optimization under Fiscal Rules and Uncertainty: A Systematic Review and Bibliometric Mapping. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 16(2), 914–924. https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.22235

Issue

Vol. 16 No. 2 (2026)

Section

Articles

License

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