The Impact of Russia–Ukraine Conflict on the Crude Oil Prices

Authors

  • Amir Imeri MIT University, Skopje, North Macedonia,
  • Luis A. Gil-Alana University of Navarra, Pamplona, Spain; & Universidad Francisco de Vitoria, Madrid, Spain; & Universidad Europea de Madrid, Madrid, Spain,
  • Manuel Monge Universidad Francisco de Vitoria, Madrid, Spain; & Universidad Europea de Madrid, Madrid, Spain.

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.22124

Keywords:

Russia-Ukraine conflict, Crude Oil Prices, Persistence, Shocks, Fractional Integration

Abstract

This paper investigates the properties of the crude oil prices in the context of the Ukraine- Russia conflict by using statistical techniques based on long memory and fractional integration. In order to understand the volatility of West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices, data from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis for the period September 12, 2012 to September 12, 2022 are used. The results using unit root tests indicate nonstationarity I(1) for the whole sample period but also for the two subsamples created by the war. Additionally, the findings through ARFIMA approach for the whole period as well as pre-Russia-Ukraine war period confirm mean reversion and transitory shock, whereas for the period from the start of Russia-Ukraine war, the shock in crude oil prices is expected to be permanent. There is a need for inter-governmental cooperation in keeping the oil price at its normal value.

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Published

2026-02-08

How to Cite

Imeri, A., A. Gil-Alana, L., & Monge, M. (2026). The Impact of Russia–Ukraine Conflict on the Crude Oil Prices. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 16(2), 350–354. https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.22124

Issue

Vol. 16 No. 2 (2026)

Section

Articles

License

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