Carbon, Growth and Clean Energy: Decoding Bulgaria’s Sustainability Equation

Abstract

Carbon emissions represent a critical and pressing challenge in the 21st century. This study examines the impact of economic growth on carbon emissions in Bulgaria, an emerging economy in Eastern Europe. Utilizing annual time series data spanning from 1990 to 2020, we analyzed the relationship between carbon emissions and key explanatory variables, including GDP growth and renewable energy consumption. To investigate the long-term dynamics among the variables, the study employed the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds testing approach for co-integration. The empirical findings confirm the existence of a long-run relationship among the model variables. Notably, economic growth was found to have a significant positive effect on carbon emissions in Bulgaria. Conversely, renewable energy consumption exhibited an insignificant negative impact on emissions, indicating that the renewable energy sector remains underdeveloped and insufficiently integrated into the national energy mix. These findings carry important implications for policymakers. To balance economic growth with environmental sustainability, it is essential to promote and invest in renewable energy sources. Strengthening this sector could help mitigate the environmental consequences of economic expansion in Bulgaria.