Modelling Five Variables BVAR for Economic Policies and Growth in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Russia: 2005–2020

Ivan Aleksandrovich Kopytin, Nikolay Petrovich Pilnik, Ivan Pavlovich Stankevich


The paper applies the Bayesian Vector Auto Regression (BVAR) framework to analysis of the influence of world oil price and exchange rate and interest rate policies on economic growth and consumer inflation in three post-Soviet oil exporters: Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Russia. It is shown that transition to inflation targeting regime with floating exchange rate in 2014 – 2015 weakened the link between economic growth and world oil price in Russia and Kazakhstan. In Azerbaijan previously nonexistent systemic link between GDP growth and world oil price has emerged. It is also shown that all three countries de facto diverted from free floating exchange rate regime after 2017.

Keywords: Brent Oil Price, Nominal Exchange Rate, Economic growth, Interest Rate, Inflation.

JEL Classifications: С11, C32, E37, E61, F43


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