Does Crude Oil Prices have Effect on Exports, Imports and GDP on BRICS Countries? - An Empirical Evidence

Shripad Ramchandra Marathe, Guntur Anjana Raju

Abstract


The complexity of the World Oil market has risen significantly in recent years and today's Oil prices require new methods to consider, model and forecast. In addition to the start of the Oil markets financialization era, structural changes have occurred on the global Oil market. This paper presents a simple framework for understanding the effect of Oil prices on BRICS countries' macroeconomic variables over a period of time from 1st January 2000 to 31st December 2019 using the Cointegration, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Granger Causality test. Our analysis shows that there is a long-term relationship between the Macroeconomic variables and Crude Oil, and also suggests that there is a uni-directional and bi-directional relationship between the variables in BRICS.

Keywords: Crude Oil prices, BRICS, Granger Causality, Co-integration, Vector Error Correction Model

JEL Classifications: G12, G15, Q43

DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.10018


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