Modeling and Forecasting Gasoline Consumption in Cameroon using Linear Regression Models

Emmanuel Flavian Sapnken, Jean Gaston Tamba, Salome Njakomo Essiane, Francis Djanna Koffi, Donatien Njomo

Abstract


In this study we model and forecast gasoline consumption in Cameroon till 2020. We start by estimating price and income elasticities of gasoline consumption using historical data for the period 1994-2010. Our estimates of price elasticity range between -1.433 and -0.151, while income elasticity range between 0.179 and 1.801. These results are similar with findings in other developing countries. We then establish a dynamic regression model for forecasting gasoline consumption. Usual statistical performance measures are used to validate the model. Results suggest that price, GDP and income are significant drivers of gasoline consumption in Cameroon. Projected results show that gasoline consumption will increase by over 7% yearly, reaching 1 078 504 m3 by 2020. Following these findings, we recommend energy policies in Cameroon to prioritize the discovery of new oil fields, expand and modernize refining capacities to increase production, and improve storage capacities of petroleum products by at least 2020.

Keywords: Gasoline consumption, Forecasting, Cameroon

JEL Classifications: Q4, Q47


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