Modeling and Forecasting Gasoline Consumption in Cameroon using Linear Regression Models

Authors

  • Emmanuel Flavian Sapnken Department of Thermal and Energy Engineering, University Institute of Technology, University of Douala Laboratory of Technologies and Applied Science, University Institute of Technology, University of Douala, PO Box 8698 Douala, Cameroon
  • Jean Gaston Tamba Department of Thermal and Energy Engineering, University Institute of Technology, University of Douala Laboratory of Technologies and Applied Science, University Institute of Technology, University of Douala, PO Box 8698 Douala, Cameroon
  • Salome Njakomo Essiane Laboratory of Technologies and Applied Science, University Institute of Technology, University of Douala, PO Box 8698 Douala, Cameroon
  • Francis Djanna Koffi Department of Thermal and Energy Engineering, University Institute of Technology, University of Douala Laboratory of Technologies and Applied Science, University Institute of Technology, University of Douala, PO Box 8698 Douala, Cameroon
  • Donatien Njomo Environmental Energy Technologies Laboratory, University of Yaoundé I, PO Box 812, Yaoundé, Cameroon

Abstract

In this study we model and forecast gasoline consumption in Cameroon till 2020. We start by estimating price and income elasticities of gasoline consumption using historical data for the period 1994-2010. Our estimates of price elasticity range between -1.433 and -0.151, while income elasticity range between 0.179 and 1.801. These results are similar with findings in other developing countries. We then establish a dynamic regression model for forecasting gasoline consumption. Usual statistical performance measures are used to validate the model. Results suggest that price, GDP and income are significant drivers of gasoline consumption in Cameroon. Projected results show that gasoline consumption will increase by over 7% yearly, reaching 1 078 504 m3 by 2020. Following these findings, we recommend energy policies in Cameroon to prioritize the discovery of new oil fields, expand and modernize refining capacities to increase production, and improve storage capacities of petroleum products by at least 2020.

Keywords: Gasoline consumption, Forecasting, Cameroon

JEL Classifications: Q4, Q47

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Published

2018-03-20

How to Cite

Sapnken, E. F., Tamba, J. G., Essiane, S. N., Koffi, F. D., & Njomo, D. (2018). Modeling and Forecasting Gasoline Consumption in Cameroon using Linear Regression Models. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 8(2), 111–120. Retrieved from http://econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/view/5985

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