Forecasting of Turkey’s Sectoral Energy Demand by Using Fuzzy Grey Regression Model

Abdulkerim Karaaslan, Mesliha Gezen

Abstract


Population growth, technological developments, economical growth and efforts to achieve a high standard of living increase the demand for energy. Satisfying this increasing demand without interruption is of vital importance for countries to ensure security of supply. Safely forecasting the energy demand of Turkey, which is about 3-4 times the world average, is important for sustainable development and improving standards of living in the country. This study seeks to forecast Turkey’s total energy demand and determine the distribution of this demand among sectors and the amount of unutilized energy. In the study, the energy demand projection until 2023 was revealed with fuzzy grey regression model (FGRM) using the data between years 1990-2012.

Keywords: fuzzy grey prediction; sectorial energy demand in Turkey; fuzzy grey regression model

JEL Classifications: C610, L690


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