Morocco’s Tourism Policy Formulation and Sustainable Development Goals up to 2030 Horizon: A Time-Series Econometric Analysis Using the ARDL Bounds Testing

Abstract

Tourism is a major pillar of Morocco’s economy and has long been supported by ambitious national strategies, including the 2010 and 2020 Visions. As the country prepares for the 2030 FIFA World Cup, co-hosted with Spain and Portugal, it is increasingly orienting its tourism development toward sustainability and competitiveness in line with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This study investigates the determinants of a future Moroccan tourism policy up to 2030 using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds Testing approach on time-series data covering 2000–2021. The findings show that economic freedom positively influences tourist arrivals, whereas poverty negatively affects tourism performance. Renewable energy use and controlled water stress also contribute to destination attractiveness, highlighting the importance of environmental sustainability. These effects persist over the long term, with stronger impacts from economic freedom and poverty. The study recommends targeted short- and long-term policy reforms while acknowledging data availability limitations.