Global Warming and Agricultural Output in Nigeria: A Threshold Analysis

Abstract

This study investigates the nonlinear relationship between global warming and agricultural output in Nigeria using a threshold regression framework. Annual time‑series data are employed to identify whether a critical temperature level exists beyond which warming exerts disproportionately adverse effects on agricultural performance. The results reveal a temperature threshold of 27.10°C, indicating that agricultural output responds positively to warming below this point but declines sharply once temperatures exceed it. This confirms the presence of a climatic tipping point in Nigeria’s agricultural system. The analysis further shows that government agricultural expenditure exerts a weak and predominantly negative influence on output, particularly in high‑temperature conditions, while labour productivity diminishes under thermal stress. These findings demonstrate that the climate–agriculture nexus in Nigeria is regime‑dependent and sensitive to temperature extremes. Strengthening climate‑resilient agricultural strategies, improving public investment efficiency, and enhancing adaptive capacity are essential for sustaining long‑term sectoral performance under rising global temperatures.