International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues
International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues (IJEFI) is the international academic journal, and is a double-blind, peer-reviewed academic journal publishing high quality conceptual and measure development articles in the areas of economics, finance and related disciplines. The journal has a worldwide audience. The journal's goal is to stimulate the development of economics, finance and related disciplines theory worldwide by publishing interesting articles in a highly readable format. ISSN: 2146-4138.
The Impact of Earnings Management on Stock Returns with the Moderating Role of Audit Quality in Emerging Markets
This study aims to evaluate the impact of earnings management (EM) on stock returns in the context of emerging markets, while also examining the moderating role of audit quality, represented by the presence of Big 4 audit firms. Utilizing prominent EM measurement models, including Jones (1991), Dechow et al. (1995), and Kothari et al. (2005), the research conducts panel data analysis with firm- and year-fixed effects, along with robustness checks through clustered standard errors. The empirical results reveal a positive association between EM and stock returns, suggesting that earnings management behaviors may be positively received by the market in the short term. However, when audit quality is high (Big 4 auditors), this relationship weakens or even reverses, implying that high-quality audits can mitigate the influence of earnings management activities. Furthermore, the findings indicate a notable difference between listed and unlisted firms, highlighting the role of market monitoring environments. The study contributes to the enrichment of agency theory, signaling theory, and asymmetric information theory in the context of emerging economies.
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Risk Orientation and SME Performance: The Mediating Role of Management Accounting
Limited studies have examined how risk orientation affects the adoption of management accounting (MA) and performance in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Performance in SMEs is influenced by various factors, including the ability to adapt to changes in the market and the effective use of resources. Understanding how risk orientation impacts the adoption of management accounting practices can offer helpful tips for enhancing overall business performance and sustainability in this sector. This study seeks to examine the effects of risk orientation and MA on performance using structural equation modelling. A quantitative study was established where a questionnaire survey was administered to Malaysian SMEs across different sectors. Based on 189 valid responses, the results indicate that MAs partially mediate the relationship between risk orientation and SMEs' performance. The findings provide significant information for identifying the underlying factors within the setting of small businesses in improving financial resilience of SMEs. Our findings offer practitioners valuable insight about how risk orientation and management accounting can consequently affect the positive outcomes of organisational performance.
Inflation and Growth of SMEs in Nigeria: A Pre and Post Fuel Subsidy Period Analysis
The focus of this research is on inflation and growth of SMEs in Nigeria: A pre and post fuel subsidy period analysis. This study set out to achieve the specific objectives of investigating the relationship between inflation rate, exchange rate, interest rate, average fuel pump price and SMEs output in Nigeria before and after fuel subsidy removal periods. The data were collected monthly from 2022M01 to 2024M12. The month of May 2023 was observed as the structural break period in the analysis. The Structural break analysis was conducted using the Chow breakpoint test and the result revealed that there was structural break in SMEs output at the specified break point (2023:M05) as a result of the inflation effect resulting from fuel subsidy removal. The Chow forecast estimates further revealed that inflation rate and fuel price exerted positive effects on SMEs output before and after fuel subsidy removal periods while exchange rate and interest rate had a significantly negative effect on SMEs output before and after fuel subsidy removal. The study concluded that inflation effect of fuel subsidy removal was not severe on SMEs in Nigeria because they have monopolistic tendencies which make them transfer the increasing cost of production on to consumers hence hedging against inflationary trends. The only strain experienced by SMEs was from exchange rate fluctuations and rise in capital acquisition (interest rate). The study recommended interest rate reduction for SMEs, foreign exchange provision for export trades and stable fuel price to ease SMEs operation in Nigeria.
Exchange Rate and Agricultural Sector Performance in South Africa: Time Series Analysis Approach
The study investigated the intricate relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and the performance of the agricultural sector in South Africa data spanning from 1986 to 2022. Compound methodology was employed for analysis, where Johansen cointegration tests reveal the presence of long run relationship among the variables after series became stationary after first difference using Augmented Dicker Fuller. Pearson correlation matrix highlights the positive effect of real exchange rate fluctuations on the gross value of agricultural production, with agricultural exports playing a significant role in driving this relationship. Further analysis using the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares model confirmed a positive and statistically significant relationship between agricultural exports and the gross value of agricultural production. This suggests that policies promoting increased agricultural exports could lead to higher agricultural production values. The study recommends policymakers focus on implementing measures to stabilize and predict exchange rates, which can positively influence agricultural sector performance.
Heterogeneous Ownership Structure and Audit Report Timeliness of Listed Consumer Goods Firms in Nigeria
The study investigated how diverse ownership structures influence the timeliness of audit report publication among listed consumer goods companies in Nigeria. It adopts an ex-post-facto design while considering consumer goods companies from 2013-2023. After filtering through all the possibilities, 17 consumer goods firms remained on the Nigeria group exchange (NGX) list as at December 31, 2023. Using the GMM estimations on panel data, the study analyses the influence of ownership concentration, institutional ownership, managerial ownership, and foreign ownership over audit report lag. Results show that ownership concentration and managerial ownership significantly delay the audit reporting process, while foreign ownership enhances timeliness. Institutional ownership shows no significant effect. These results illustrate how ownership configuration affects the efficiency of financial performance. The research therefore recommends the enforcement of stronger regulatory oversight, promotion of foreign ownership, and better corporate governance practices to fast-track audit timeliness and transparency in the Nigerian capital market.
Unemployment and Bank Performance: The Moderating Role of Gross National Income per Capita
This study examines unemployment’s impact on Turkish bank performance, emphasizing gross national income (GNI) per capita’s moderating role. Analyzing 50 major Turkish banks (2013-2024) using panel data regression techniques like OLS, Fixed Effects Model, and Random Effects Model, with two-step Systems GMM robustness testing. Results demonstrate unemployment significantly and negatively affect both ROA and ROE, confirming that rising unemployment deteriorates bank profitability through increased credit risk and reduced loan demand. GNI per capita shows positive direct effects on bank performance, indicating higher national income levels enhance banking sector resilience. The unemployment-GNI per capita interaction reveals significant positive moderating effects, suggesting banks in higher-income environments better absorb unemployment shocks due to stronger household balance sheets and robust institutional frameworks. Control variables demonstrate expected relationships: cost-to-income ratio and leverage negatively correlate with profitability, while bank size and GDP growth show positive associations. These empirical findings provide valuable insights for policymakers, bank managers, and regulators designing targeted interventions considering labor market dynamics and income-level effects to enhance banking stability in middle-income emerging economies.
From Automation to Personalization: A Bibliometric Analysis of Chatbot Adoption in Banking
This bibliometric analysis explores the evolving landscape of chatbot adoption in the banking sector using data sourced from the Scopus database. The study employed advanced bibliometric tools such as Biblioshiny, VOSviewer, and CiteSpace to map the intellectual structure, research trends, and influential contributors in the field. Analysis of scientific output over the years reveals a sharp increase in publications post-2020, indicating rising scholarly interest in banking chatbots. Influential researchers and high-impact journals such as Tolga Cekic and the Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems were identified as key knowledge sources. The global distribution of research showed strong contributions from technologically advanced economies, with notable international collaborations visualized through timezone-based network maps. Co-citation analysis of authors and journals highlighted the foundational and interdisciplinary nature of chatbot research. Bibliographic coupling and keyword co-occurrence patterns underscored the thematic depth of current studies. Thematic mapping revealed well-developed motor themes like NLP and ChatGPT, while basic themes such as AI and customer satisfaction remained underexplored in terms of maturity. Trend topic analysis demonstrated a shift from technological adoption toward user experience and satisfaction in recent years. Overall, the findings illuminate existing research gaps and offer practical implications for future studies aiming to optimize chatbot implementation in banking services.
Effect of Economic Growth on Well-Being in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does Institutional Quality Matter?
This study analyzes the role of institutional quality in the relationship between economic growth and improved well-being in Sub-Saharan Africa over the period 2007-2021. This study collected data from the World Bank and Legatum Prosperity Index websites for 35 Sub-Saharan African countries. Methodologically, the study uses the generalized method of moments (GMM) in a two-stage system. The results reveal that economic growth reduces the well-being of populations, while institutional quality improves it. Furthermore, institutional quality mitigates the negative effect of economic growth on the well-being of populations. However, this effect is more pronounced in Anglo-Saxon countries than in French-speaking countries. Similarly, there are minimum thresholds of institutional quality beyond which economic growth contributes to improving the well-being of populations in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Mapping the Literature on Environmental, Social, Governance, and Bank Performance: A Bibliometric and Content Analysis
This study identifies gaps in existing research and proposes ten potential studies based on the most influential publications from the past five years. The study employs bibliometric citation analysis and orange data mining tools to review and analyze 253 documents from Scopus-indexed publications, complemented by content analysis. The analysis highlights a rising focus on the interplay between ESG factors and bank performance within sustainable finance, evidenced by increasing publications and citations. Leading contributors include "Sustainability (Switzerland)" and "Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management." China leads in publication volume, with Amina Buallay as the most influential author. Cluster analysis using the latent Dirichlet allocation model identifies six primary themes. Research gaps are identified, and ten future research directions are proposed based on key publications from the past five years. This research uncovers relatively unexplored clusters with potential for future investigation, providing deeper insights into the advancement of research using statistical data on keyword occurrences with the Orange application. This study relies solely on the Scopus database and specific keywords, which may limit comprehensiveness. Future research should incorporate additional databases and explore individual ESG subthemes in greater depth to provide a more holistic understanding of ESG factors and bank performance.
Determinants of E-Commerce Adoption for Saudi MSMEs: Does E-Commerce Adoption Impact Financial and Non-Financial Performances?
Recently, business operations and performance for micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) around the world have been impacted from the COVID- 19 spread. To sustain their businesses, many strategies have been adopted and implemented from the MSMEs. This study examines and analyzes the correlation between e-commerce adoption (ECA) and the performance of MSMEs in Saudi Arabia and identifying the drivers that influencing ECA over the period of COVID- 19 pandemic. The data in this study were collected from 513 MSMEs across different regions of Saudi Arabia. Statistically, the data were examined utilizing the partial least squares-structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) method to evaluate the proposed model. The results indicated that technology resources, technical infrastructure, and company size are critical factors influencing e-commerce adoption. The use of e-commerce was strongly correlated with both the financial and non-financial success of MSMEs during the period of COVID- 19. Additionally, MSMEs found being as a mediator for the association between ECA and the financial performance. The results of this study added to the knowledge and contribute to the existing literature review of technology adoption through analyzing the determinants of ECA and the e-commerce’s role in performance of firm during a global pandemic. The results are valuable for MSME managers and policymakers, highlighting the critical significance of e-commerce implementation for business growth and long-term continuation. Policymakers can also use these findings to develop policies and strategies for promoting e-commerce application in Saudi Arabia. Furthermore, this study provides a significant contribution to the development of the framework of Technology-Organization-Environment (TOE) for MSMEs.
Does Monetary Policy Affect the Stability of Islamic Banks?
The financial crisis of 2007-2008 compelled economists to reevaluate the impacts and trajectories of monetary policy. It highlighted the new challenges central banks face, particularly in integrating financial stability into the monetary policy-making process. Financial stability is closely connected to monetary policy. The financial sector plays a vital role as a channel for monetary policy to affect the real economy. Numerous studies have investigated the impact of monetary policy on the stability of conventional banking institutions. Nonetheless, a substantial study vacuum persists concerning the impact of monetary policy on the stability of Islamic financial institutions. Our research aims to investigate this matter. The study analyzed a sample of 34 financial institutions across 11 countries with dual banking systems, spanning the years 2013-2022. It utilized a random effects estimator and a system GMM estimator. The findings demonstrate a substantial and negative impact of the monetary policy rate on the stability of Islamic banks. The study’s conclusions have significant consequences, especially for infrastructure and monetary policy. The advancement of the Islamic money market signifies a crucial development in the strength and expansion of Islamic financial organizations. Furthermore, monetary policymakers must evaluate the effects of interest rate-oriented monetary policy on the stability of Islamic banks.
Does Government Spending, Investment, and Natural Resources Reduce Unemployment in Riau Province, Indonesia?
Unemployment is a major macroeconomic problem included in the SDG 2030 agenda, Goal 8. This study aims to analyze the unemployment rate, examine the dynamic patterns in unemployment between regions in Riau Province, and demonstrate the effect of government spending, investment, and natural resources on the unemployment rate. The method used is quantitative with static and dynamic panel data modelling. The data set used is the 2011-23 period and the district/municipality analysis unit. The results of the static panel model show two significant variables for reducing unemployment, namely FDI and manufacturing. For the dynamic model results, variables significantly reduce unemployment, including economic growth, FDI, natural resources, and the industrial sector, while government spending is positive for unemployment. The results of this study prove the occurrence of a dynamic pattern in unemployment, so severe handling is needed from policymakers for the long term.
Analyzing the Competitiveness and Complementarity of the Tea Trade between China and Mekong River Basin Countries
This study examines the competitiveness and complementarity of the tea trade between China and Mekong River Basin countries (Cambodia, Myanmar, Thailand, Vietnam, and Laos) from 2014 to 2023. Using the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) index, the Trade Complementarity Index (TCI), and the Trade Intensity Index (TII), the research assesses China’s position in the tea market of the region. The survey results indicate that China has maintained a strong comparative advantage in tea exports, occupying a dominant position in the region, but competition from Vietnam is particularly significant. China’s tea trade exhibits strong complementarity with Cambodia and Myanmar while maintaining close trade ties with Vietnam, Cambodia, and Thailand. Recent trade complementarity and trade intensity between China and the Mekong River Basin countries show a steady upward trend, signaling increased alignment in bilateral trade. The study offers policy recommendations—adopting market-specific strategies, fostering regional cooperation, and optimizing product structures—to enhance China’s tea trade competitiveness.
Analyzing Determinants of Tax Management Effectiveness in Transportation Construction Enterprises in Vietnam: A Hybrid SEM–ANN Approach
This study investigates the key determinants influencing tax management effectiveness among transportation construction enterprises in Vietnam. Drawing upon the Institutional Theory, Theory of Planned Behavior, and Technology Acceptance Model, a conceptual framework was developed incorporating six factors: Tax Policy, Tax Officers, Infrastructure for Tax Administration, Corporate Tax Compliance Awareness, Digital Technology, and Tax Administration Functions. Data were collected from 385 firms using structured questionnaires. A hybrid methodological approach combining Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) was employed to capture both linear and nonlinear relationships among constructs. SEM results revealed that all six factors significantly influence tax management effectiveness, with Tax Policy and Tax Officers being the most impactful. The ANN analysis further confirmed these findings and ranked variable importance, highlighting Tax Policy as the strongest predictor. The study offers practical implications for policymakers aiming to enhance tax governance in project-based, capital-intensive sectors and demonstrates the value of hybrid modeling in public finance research.
The Influence of Liquidity and Solvency on Bank Profitability: The Moderating Role of Dividend Policy
The banking sector in Indonesia is facing significant challenges following the COVID-19 pandemic, including declining profitability, bankruptcy risks, and pressures on liquidity and solvency. The lack of research on the moderating role of dividend policy in the relationship between liquidity, solvency, and profitability is a major issue. This study aims to analyze the impact of liquidity (LDR) and solvency (CAR) on the profitability (ROA) of conventional banks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) for the period 2014-2023, as well as to examine the role of dividend policy (DPR) as a moderating variable. Using a quantitative approach, secondary data from Refinitiv Eikon and financial reports of 22 banks with 175 observations will be analyzed through moderation regression analysis (MRA) using STATA. The results show that liquidity (LDR) has a negative and insignificant effect on ROA, while solvability (CAR) has a positive and significant effect. Dividend policy (DPR) does not moderate the relationship between liquidity or solvability and profitability. These findings emphasize the importance of capital adequacy for profitability, support signaling theory, but indicate the need for an evaluation of liquidity strategies. Dividend policy is not proven to be a moderating mechanism, suggesting that banks should prioritize capital management and regulators should consider contextual factors in dividend policy.
Enhancing Forecast Accuracy of Exchange Rate Volatility Using Hybrid ANN-GARCH Models: Evidence from South Africa, Brazil, and China
An important development in the modelling of exchange rate volatility is the use of artificial neural networks (ANN) to create enhanced generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models. Conventional GARCH models are good at capturing the clustering of volatility in financial time series, but they have trouble understanding complex linkages and non-linear patterns in the data. This paper aims to investigate the hybrid approach in modelling exchange rate volatility of two currency pairs: South African Rand against Brazilian Real (ZAR/REAL) and South African Rand against Chinese Yuan (ZAR/YUAN) using monthly observations over the period of January 1996-March 2024. The paper introduced ANN as an additional factor to both symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models that capture most common stylised facts about exchange rate volatility and leverage effects. The GARCH (1,1)-ANN, EGARCH (1,1)-ANN, and GJR-GARCH (1,1)-ANN models were used, and their performance was assessed using mean squared error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The results revealed that the EGARCH (1,1)-ANN model had the best overall performance when compared to the other hybrid models based on all three evaluation measures for both the currency pairs’ data. The paper recommends further similar studies to predict future exchange rate trends and also incorporating other nonlinear methods.
R&D Investment and Tax Avoidance Strategies under K-IFRS: Nonlinear Evidence from the Korean Stock Market
This study investigates the impact of R&D investments on tax avoidance among companies listed on the Korean stock market from 2011 to 2023. It classifies R&D investments into two categories: R&D expenses, recorded as ordinary business expenses, and development costs (capitalized R&D expenses), recognized as assets. The research examines whether these two forms of R&D investment have distinct effects on tax avoidance and explores whether these relationships follow linear or nonlinear patterns. Using an empirical model, the study employs tax avoidance measures (BTD and DDBTD) as dependent variables, with R&D expenses and development costs as key independent variables. The findings reveal that R&D expenses are positively associated with tax avoidance, whereas development costs exhibit a negative relationship. Furthermore, the relationship between R&D expenses and tax avoidance is nonlinear, following an inverted U-shape: Tax avoidance increases with R&D expenses up to a certain threshold but decreases beyond that point. In contrast, development costs consistently show a linear negative relationship with tax avoidance. This study suggests that in the Korean stock market, companies primarily engage in tax avoidance through R&D expenses. However, excessive R&D expenses can lead to a decrease in tax avoidance. By exploring the connection between R&D investment and tax avoidance, this study provides new insights into how companies use R&D strategies for tax planning.
Asymmetric Effects of Oil Prices and Global Financial Factors on the Saudi Stock Market: A NARDL Approach
This research paper examines the asymmetric effects of key macroeconomic and international stock market indices on the “Saudi stock market (TASI).” This research employs a “non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model” that incorporates monthly information from 2000 to 2024 to inspect the impacts of “oil prices (WTI), interest rates, exchange rates (REER), oil production, inflation, and global equity markets (the S&P 500 and the Shanghai Composite).” The empirical evidence reveals significant long-run asymmetries, particularly from positive oil production shocks, which appear to have a strong and positive impact on “TASI.” In the short run, currency depreciation and declines in oil prices also lead to improved market returns. In contrast, factors such as interest rates, inflation rates, and global stock indices show limited influence. Overall, the findings shed light on the central role of oil and exchange rate dynamics in shaping the Saudi financial market. These insights offer meaningful findings for regulators and investors seeking to promote market stability and navigate external shocks in an increasingly interconnected global economy.
The Effect of Environmental, Social, and Governance Factors on Banks’ Financial Performance: The Mediating Role of Organizational Innovation and Competitive Advantage
This study analyses the impact of ESG practice on the financial performance of banks in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) by highlighting the mediating roles of competitive advantage and innovation. Since the upsurge in the level of competition in the banking sector in HCMC, proper information on how these factors affect financial outcomes should be known to ensure long-term success. Data used in this study were obtained from 347 employees working in different banks in HCMC collected through convenient sampling methodology. The SmartPLS software was used to check the research model and hypotheses. The results indicate that the elements of ESG, environmental, social, and governance positively influence the financial performance of banks in mediation through competitive advantage and innovation. Specific results indicate that other than building the brand of the bank, a strong ESG framework enhances the competitive advantage and innovation of the bank all culminating in enhanced financial outcomes. This gives much of what is needed to know-how veritable sustainable business practice may increment profitability within the banking trade, importantly within emergent markets as in HCMC. The learnings of this study shall be thought precious by both academic minds and professionals. This shows that including ESG practice within business strategy shall improve efficiency in operations, increase customer satisfaction, and draw ethical investors. Therefore, banks in HCMC would use ESG practice to better their market position amidst an increasing competitive setting by promoting sustainability.
Evaluating the Determinants of Retirement Annuity Fund Investment Intention in South Africa’s Retirement Savings Landscape
The growing concern over insufficient retirement savings in South Africa highlights the importance of understanding the factors that influence individuals’ decisions to invest in Retirement Annuity Funds (RAFs). The purpose of this study is to assess critical factors influencing an individual’s intention to invest in RAF in an emerging economy. The study examines the relationships between awareness and knowledge of RAFs, including their tax benefits, and financial literacy, and how these factors influence individuals’ intention to invest in RAFs. A quantitative research approach was employed, using structured surveys distributed to university employees in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. The findings reveal that while individuals have moderate to high awareness of RAF tax benefits, this knowledge does not significantly influence investment intention. Additionally, financial literacy was found to have a negative relationship with the intention to invest, suggesting that financially literate individuals may prefer alternative investment options. The study contributes to knowledge by highlighting these relationships, providing insights that can help the national treasury and financial service providers develop guidelines to improve awareness and knowledge to influence attitudes about the benefits of investing in a RAF.
Is the Implementation of the Taxation Omnibus Law Important for Dividend Policy?
This study investigates the impact of the implementation of Indonesia’s Taxation Omnibus Law on corporate dividend policy, with a particular focus on the moderating role of institutional ownership. Utilizing panel data regression with a Random Effects Model approach, the analysis is conducted on 37 companies listed in the LQ-45 index over the period 2017–2024. The empirical findings reveal that the tax reform positively influences dividend yield, yet has no significant effect on dividend per share (DPS). Moreover, the interaction between institutional ownership and tax reform weakens the impact of the reform on DPS. Theoretically, these results highlight that the effectiveness of tax policy reforms is contingent upon a firm’s ownership structure. From a policy perspective, the findings underscore the need for targeted tax incentives that align with corporate governance characteristics to effectively influence dividend distribution decisions. The novelty of this research lies in its focus on the Taxation Omnibus Law and its implications for dividend payout behavior, while incorporating institutional ownership as a moderating variable—an area that has received limited attention in prior studies on tax reform and corporate financial policy.
Investor Sentiment and South African Commodity Market Returns: Evidence from Switching Conditions
The commodity market of emerging markets has over the years been a firm favourite among investors wanting to diversify their holding due to its safe heaven properties. Until recently, such properties have been criticised by academics due to its inability to provide portfolio protection during sentiment induced markets and market uncertainty. To this end, the objective of the study is to examine the effect of investor sentiment on South African commodity market returns during stable and volatile market conditions. In doing so, the study used monthly data for the period March 2007 to January 2024 to construct an investor sentiment index and test it against gold and oil returns. The findings of the Markov regime-switching model revealed that the return of gold is negatively significantly affected by investor sentiment in a bull regime, but oil returns is positively significantly affected by investor sentiment in the same regime. In a bear regime, investor sentiment has a positive significant effect on gold returns but in the same regime investor sentiment has a negative significant effect on oil returns. Moreover, the returns of gold and oil demonstrate bullish behaviour over the sample period. The findings demonstrate that during market uncertainty and sentiment induced markets, investors can incorporate gold in their portfolio to enhance diversification and limit losses, but the incorporation of oil will not yield any safe heaven properties. Similarly, the commodity market demonstrates adaptive behavioural as such financial market authorities must develop policies to reduce the alternating efficiencies caused by market conditions as it leads to miss-pricing and irrational investors.
Information and Communications Technology Penetration and Environmental Sustainability in Sub-Saharan Africa
Africa's information and communications technology (ICT) expansion, especially in mobile phone use, has been substantial; nonetheless, it falls behind in internet accessibility and has environmental sustainability issues, such as climate change and pollution. This study investigates the nexus between ICT penetration and environmental sustainability in Sub-Saharan Africa, using data from the World Bank and utilising a Panel Generalised Method of Moments analysis. Research demonstrates that ICT, as seen by mobile phone utilisation, positively correlates with CO2 emissions in Sub-Saharan Africa. ICT has opportunities to promote environmental sustainability via creative solutions, such as mobile money systems and energy-efficient technologies. The research highlights the need to tackle infrastructural and cost issues, advance national ICT efforts, and implement sustainable practices, such as energy-efficient hardware and life-cycle asset assessments. Policymakers are urged to use ICT as a strategic instrument to address environmental concerns and attain sustainability in the area.
Evaluating Interaction Between Inflation and A Composite Macroeconomics Index
This empirical investigation endeavours to elucidate the causal nexus between inflation and the dynamic confluence of money supply, interest rates, and GDP growth rate in five select African countries, leveraging annual panel data spanning the period from 2010 to 2024. Utilizing a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) estimation paradigm, the results unveil a statistically significant long-run relationship between inflation and the Money supply-interest rate-GDP growth rate index (MIG Index). However, the MIG Index fails to Granger-cause inflation, suggesting that fluctuations in these macroeconomic variables do not exert a statistically significant long-run impact on inflation. This finding highlights the intricate interplay between inflation and macroeconomic variables, underscoring the substantial impact of inflationary pressures on salient economic indicators. The study’s findings possess significant implications for policy decisions, emphasizing the imperative of mitigating potential macroeconomic instability. By grasping the long-run relationship between inflation and MIG, policymakers can devise targeted strategies to manage inflation and promote economic stability. Furthermore, the results underscore the importance of considering the autoregressive nature of inflation and the impact of past inflation levels on macroeconomic variables.
Unlocking the Dynamics of Initial Public Offerings Drivers in India: The Role of Institutions, Innovation, Energy, and Resources Using ARDL and NARDL Models
This study explores the dynamic link between IPO activity, country-level institutional quality and a set of dynamic macroeconomic indicators within the context of India’s emerging market from 1997 to 2022. Employing time series data, the analysis leverages both ARDL and Non-linear ARDL (NARDL) models to capture the nuances of linear and asymmetric relationships across short-run dynamics and long-run equilibrium. Results from bounds testing confirm the existence of long-run co-integration between the predictor variables and IPO activity in India. The findings reveal that institutional quality, technological innovation, and renewable energy adoption are significant positive drivers of IPO activity, signaling favorable economic conditions for firms to IPO. A marginal improvement in these factors reduces ex-ante uncertainty, increases market efficiency, and promotes better valuation incentivizing firms to pursue public listings. However, natural resource rent emerges as a negatively significant determinant, suggesting a resource curse effect in the context of IPO market performance. The study also examines the asymmetric impacts of country-level institutional quality, technological innovation, renewable energy adoption, and natural resource rent in the short- and long-term periods. Overall, the findings suggest that investor uncertainty surrounding IPO demand varies over time and across firms. This study underscores the critical role of institutional strength and dynamic macroeconomic factors in signaling-conducive environments for IPO initiation. Thus, IPO activity is expected to increase with improvements in institutional governance, support for innovation, advancement in the integration of clean energy technologies, and efficient resource management.
Industrial Value Addition, Credit Growth and Economic Growth in Botswana
The sluggish economic growth trajectory in Botswana, characterized by subdued expansion in real GDP per capita, precipitates concerns regarding the efficacy of extant macroeconomic policies. Confronted with an imperative to diversify its economy and mitigate sectoral vulnerabilities, Botswana’s growth dynamics warrant scrutiny. This study endeavors to elucidate the determinants of economic growth in Botswana, identifying trade openness, savings rates, domestic credit to the private sector, and industrial value-added as pivotal factors exerting a positive influence on growth dynamics. The findings suggest that augmenting these variables can stimulate economic expansion, thereby underscoring the imperative for policymakers to craft targeted fiscal and monetary policies that foster a conducive business environment, optimize resource allocation, and catalyze sustainable economic development. By leveraging these insights, policymakers can devise evidence-based strategies to bolster Botswana’s economic resilience and enhance its growth prospects.
Fiscal Policies, Green Trade, and Green Bond Market Development: An Empirical Study using Cross-Country Data
The global transition toward sustainable finance has elevated green bonds as a pivotal instrument for mobilizing capital toward climate-aligned investments. Yet, empirical understanding of the policy drivers behind green bond issuance remains incomplete, particularly regarding the combined roles of fiscal policy and trade integration. In this study, we examine how environmental taxes, fossil fuel subsidies, public environmental expenditure, and international trade of low-carbon technologies and environmental goods simultaneously affect the development of green bond markets. We use a panel of 11 countries between 2014 and 2022 and estimate fixed effects regression models, concluding that, though environmental taxes are positively related to the issuance of green bonds, they significantly diminish when fossil fuel subsidies persist. Conversely, direct public environmental expenditure and participation in foreign environmental trade, are consistently and robustly significant drivers of green bond issuance. These results highlight the need for coherent policy frameworks, that is, public interventions aiming at scaling up green finance through a recalibration of fiscal signals, an elimination of perverse subsidies and a boost of cross-border trade in green technologies.
The Effect of Capital Flows on Poverty Gap in West African Countries
Poverty gap reduction is highly imperative because, it increases sustainable development among developing economies, increases economic growth, and enhances standards of living. Incidentally, studies have shown that poverty gap is increasingly widening and has become a challenging concern in West Africa. Studies have also shown that optimal utilization of capital flows can solve poverty gap problem in West Africa. This study examined the effect of capital flows on the poverty gap in West African countries. The study adopted an ex post facto research design and evaluated the effect of capital flows on macroeconomic performance in W/A for 33 years (1991 to 2023). Data were extracted from the World Development Index and the International Monetary Fund The validity and reliability of the data were premised on the global recognition of WDI as a reputable source. Descriptive and inferential System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) statistics were used to analyze the data at the 0.05 level of significance. The study result showed that capital flows jointly had a significant effect on the poverty gap in West Africa. The study recommends that West African countries should consider optimally utilizing capital flows to invest in opportunities capable of bridging poverty gap in West Africa.
Food Insecurity and Poverty Dynamics among Rural Households in Eastern Sudan: Evidence from the Red Sea State
This study investigates the relationship between food insecurity and poverty among rural households in Red Sea State, Eastern Sudan. Drawing on a cross-sectional household survey conducted across three localities—Suakin, Port Sudan, and Arbaat—the analysis applies the FAO Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES) and chi-square statistical tests to examine how gender, migration status, education, and household size influence welfare outcomes. Based on a field survey of 394 households across Suakin, Port Sudan, and Algonub (Arbaat), the study examines demographic characteristics, income-generating strategies, food insecurity, and poverty prevalence. Results reveal that 47.2% of households experience moderate to severe food insecurity, and 84.5% live living below the international poverty threshold of USD 1.90/day. Disaggregated findings reveal significant disparities: Only 17% of female-headed households are food secure compared to 39.9% of male-headed households, while 94.3% of females live below the poverty line versus 81.7% of males. Migration status further amplifies vulnerability—none of the refugee households were food secure, and 100% live in poverty, compared to 13.8% food security and 93.3% poverty among IDPs, and 37.8% food security and 83.2% poverty among host communities. These insights underscore the importance of gender-sensitive and migration-aware policy interventions to build resilience and reduce poverty in fragile rural contexts.
The Causality Relationship Between Food Prices, Housing Prices and Exchange Rate in Türkiye
This study aims to examine the causality relationship between food prices, housing prices, and exchange rates in Turkiye. To this end, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) calculated for monthly food and non-alcoholic beverages, the Borsa Istanbul Construction Sector Index (XINSA), Housing Price Index (KFE), and exchange rate (USD-EURO) (KUR) data for the period March 2013 to March 2024 were analysed using the Granger Causality Test. According to the findings obtained from the analysis, a two-way causality relationship was found between the exchange rate (KUR) and the housing price index (LNKFE), as well as between the consumer price index (LNTUFE) calculated for food and non-alcoholic beverages and the construction sector index (LNXINSA). Similarly, there is a one-way causality relationship from the consumer price index for food and non-alcoholic beverages (LNTUFE) to the housing price index (LNKFE) and from the exchange rate (KUR) to the consumer price index for food and non-alcoholic beverages (TÜFE).
Foreign Direct Investment, Economic Growth, and Governance in China: An Empirical Study
In this study, the direct and indirect effect of FDI on governance was analyzed using the ARDL model with data spanning from 1990 to 2023. The analysis looked at FDI interaction with economic growth and financial openness. An analytical framework was constructed, including macroeconomic factors like trade openness, real GDP per capita, and financial development. Based on the analysis, governance can be impacted by FDI in a complex and non-linear manner. In the short-run perspective, the degree of impact of FDO on governance seemed to be mixed. However, in the long-run view, the impact leaned more positively, although not always statistically significant. Governance benefits from economic growth and vice versa. Thus, these two factors have a mutual positive relationship. However, trade openness seemed to hinder governance growth, marked by institutional pressures and regulatory challenges of deeper integration into global markets. Financial development, while theoretically expected to improve governance through greater transparency and market discipline, does not show significant long-term effects, suggesting that financial governance reform in China remains incomplete. The findings highlight the importance of optimising the quality of FDI, strengthening institutional capacity, and combining economic openness with governance reforms. This study not only contributes to the academic literature on FDI and governance but also provides practical policy implications for China to continue to attract high-quality FDI, improve its governance capacity, and achieve high-quality development in the context of globalisation and sustainable development.
Benchmarking the Financial Efficiency of Public Corporations in Mexico
This research introduces a non-parametric approach, based on financial ratios, to assess the financial performance of public organizations. The approach utilizes financial ratios as outputs in an output-only Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model. The output-oriented DEA method estimates relative financial efficiency scores that are used to estimate efficiency densities via a kernel distribution with a normal optimal smoothing parameter. A kernel test of hypothesis is then used to perform financial performance comparisons between companies to assess the statistical significance of their performance differences. The proposed approach is tested when evaluating the financial efficiency of eight public Mexican corporations from 2018 to 2023. Hence, multiple heterogeneous financial ratios are combined into a single measure of efficiency, which allows ranking of the corporations’ performance based on their financial ratios. Results confirm the usefulness of the proposed approach and provide valuable data-driven insights for decision makers.
Monetary Policy, Macroprudential Policy, and Credit Cycle: Evidence in the Indonesian Banking Industry
This research aimed to analyse the effect of monetary policy and macroprudential policy on credit cycle for 41 conventional banks between 2010 and 2023 in Indonesia. Initially, four models using POLS and fixed effect models were executed in this paper. Subsequently, a Durbin-Wu-Hausman test identified issues of endogeneity in the models. Ultimately, a panel GMM estimation was employed. The findings revealed that central bank rate had a positive influence on credit cycle. While macroprudential policy had a negative impact on credit cycle. The interaction effect of macroprudential and monetary policies had an influence on lowering the credit cycle. The credit cycle is influenced negatively and significantly by Non-performing loans (NPL) and capital adequacy ratio (CAR). Meanwhile, inflation, economic growth and loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) had a positive effect on the variable. The findings offer valuable policy insights for policymakers in Indonesia. Central banks should be aware of how banks’ credit cycles behave in response to shocks from monetary and macroprudential policies.
A Statistical Analysis to Assess the Impact of India’s Export Potential in Petroleum Products and Real Effective Exchange Rate on GCC Countries
This study explores how the economic growth of the gulf cooperation council (GCC) countries is affected by India’s petroleum product exports and the real effective exchange rate (REER). Annual time series data from 1995 to 2025 are used for empirical support, and the panel autoregressive distributed lag model is used with gross domestic product (GDP) as a dependent variable, serving as a proxy for the economic growth of the GCC. For explanatory variables, the highest exported petroleum product from India to GCC countries and India’s real effective exchange rate are used to determine the short and long-run relationship with the GDP of GCC countries. The findings reveal that petroleum product exports to the GCC countries and the real effective exchange rate significantly impact the GCC countries’ GDP in both the short and long run. Lastly, the Breusch-Pagan test provides evidence of no heteroscedasticity issues, and the Pesaran LM test shows no cross-sectional dependence. In addition, the RESET test confirms the overall model stability in the regression analysis without any misspecification or errors. Unidirectional causality is confirmed through the Granger test, where petroleum product exports and the real effective exchange rate affect the GDP of the GCC countries.
Does Financial Repression Facilitate Financial Development? Empirical Evidence from Malaysia
The importance of financial repression to the Malaysian financial development appears to be recognised. Lengthy theoretical and empirical discussions in previous literature have taken place on determinant of financial development which are focusing on macroeconomic factors. However, they ignore the role of financial repression as a determinant for financial development. Thus, the main purpose of this study is to examine the effect of financial repressions and their causality effects on financial development in Malaysia. There are five proxies used to measure financial repression which are public debt, statutory reserve requirement, liquidity requirement, interest rate control, and directed credit program. Other variable such as gross domestic product (GDP), inflation, human capital, and gross fixed capital formation also included as control variable. This study employed 42 years’ time series data for the period of 1980-2022. Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root test and Phillip Perron unit root tests are applied to test the stationarity properties of the series. This study uses Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to measure financial repression index (FRI). Its address the problem of multicollinearity or high correlation between the various financial repression indicators. This study also employed the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model to examine the long-run robustness and short-run dynamics of independent variables on Malaysia’s financial development. The causal relationship between the variables is further investigated using the Toda Yamamoto Granger non-causality test. Overall, the result shows, there is a negatively significant relationship between financial repression index and financial development. All variables LNFD, LNGDP, LNINF, LNHC and LNGFCF causes LNFRI. However, there is no bi-directional causality (feedback hypothesis) detected in this model. The government could avoid a major policy reversal to reinforce the gains of the reform program. Instead, the government should focus on fine-tuning current policy positions and implementing a stable macro-financial climate based on standard macroeconomic policies with a stable interest rate and lower inflation.
Determinants of Inflation Volatility: The Role of Institutions, Shocks, and Economic Development
Inflation volatility remains one of the most important challenges for policymakers, households, and businesses alike. When prices fluctuate unpredictably, people lose confidence in their ability to plan ahead. Households struggle to budget and save, firms hesitate to invest and hire, and policymakers face higher pressure to act without clear guidance. Recent global crises—whether energy shocks, food price surges, or supply chain disruptions—have shown how quickly instability spreads across borders. This raises a central question: why are some countries more vulnerable to inflation volatility than others? Following Aisen and Veiga (2006), this study addresses that question by examining the determinants of inflation volatility across three income-based groups: lower-middle-income, upper-middle-income, and high-income economies, using panel data covering the period 1996-2024. Using both fixed and random-effects models, we find that inflation persistence and high inflation levels are the strongest drivers of volatility, while higher income levels and stronger governance support price stability. External shocks—such as trade openness, oil price fluctuations, and exchange-rate misalignments— show varied effects across income groups, emphasizing the importance of context-specific responses. The findings suggest that when countries invest in credible institutions and reliable policies, they can transform external shocks from being destabilizing forces into manageable challenges.
Dynamic Interactions between FDI and Economic Growth in China: An ARDL Analysis
The Chinese economy has benefited from foreign direct investment (FDI) by facilitating capital accumulation, technological transfer, industrial upgrading, and employment creation. However, the complexity of the relationship between FDI and economic growth persists, contributed by factors like global economic shifts, policy adjustments, and structural transformations. Thus, this study looked at the impact of FDI on influencing economic growth in China in terms of the short-term and long-term impacts. This study utilized the Autoregressive Distributed Lag or the ARDL model, covering data spanning from 1990 to 2023. This study responds to the need to fill the literature gap, including the absence of long-term dynamic analysis, limited empirical studies incorporating post-2020 data, and the neglect of asymmetric effects in the FDI-growth relationship. Empirical findings indicate that while FDI has historically driven economic expansion, its effectiveness varies across different economic stages, with potential crowding-out effects or dependency issues emerging over time. Moreover, recent geopolitical tensions, trade disruptions, and structural shifts in FDI composition have significantly altered its impact on GDP growth. The study concludes that optimizing FDI quality, fostering domestic enterprise competitiveness, and enhancing governance frameworks are essential for maximizing the positive effects of FDI in China, allowing China to grow its economy sustainably. The findings provide valuable insights for policymakers in designing effective foreign investment strategies that align with China’s evolving economic landscape.
Governance and Labor Market Outcomes in Fragile States: The Impact of Corruption Control on Unemployment Reduction in Somalia
Corruption impedes economic growth, political stability, skill development, and entrepreneurship by diverting resources from critical sectors such as infrastructure, education, and healthcare. It discourages investment and weakens economic institutions. This study examines the impact of corruption control on unemployment reduction in Somalia, a country grappling with prolonged political instability and fragile institutions. Using annual data from 1996 to 2023, the study employs both the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Fully Modified Least Squares (FMOLS) methodologies to analyze short-run and long-run dynamics. The results indicate that while the coefficient for corruption control (LNCPR) is negative implying that improvements in controlling corruption are associated with reductions in unemployment this relationship is statistically insignificant in the long run but becomes significant in the short run. Similarly, economic growth (LNGDP) significantly reduces unemployment, while government expenditure (LNGEX) and population growth (LNPOP) are associated with rising unemployment. Diagnostic and stability tests affirm the reliability of the model, and FMOLS results corroborate the long-term estimates. The study highlights the urgent need for Somalia to enhance institutional quality, digitalize its economy, and adopt sustainable employment and industrialization strategies to effectively tackle corruption and unemployment. These findings contribute to a deeper understanding of governance-driven labor market challenges in fragile state contexts.
When ESG Meets Cybersecurity: The Moderating Effect of Digital Protection on Bank Performance in MENAT Countries
This study advances sustainable finance literature by examining how financial institutions can enhance resilience through strategic integration of ESG principles and cyber-security policies. Using a sample of 35 banks from the Middle East, North Africa, and Türkiye (MENAT) region (2015-2023), we employ both static and dynamic panel estimators to analyze: (1) the direct relationship between ESG performance and financial metrics (ROA, ROE, MV), and (2) the moderating effect of cybersecurity policies on this relationship. Our results demonstrate that robust ESG performance significantly improves all financial measures, particularly ROA. The moderation analysis reveals that cybersecurity policies significantly enhance ESG’s positive impact on profitability, despite initial implementation costs. These findings have three significant contributions: First, it provides novel empirical evidence from the under-researched MENAT context. Second, it pioneers the methodological approach of testing cybersecurity as an institutional-level moderator in the ESG-performance nexus. Third, it demonstrates how integrated sustainability-digital governance frameworks create value. These findings guide bank executives and regulators in developing coordinated ESG-cybersecurity investment strategies for emerging markets.
Exploring the Impact of Big Data Analytics on FinTech Performance: The Mediating Role of Business Analytics Strategy in Jordanian Commercial Banks
This research examines the impact of big data analytics (BDA) on the performance of FinTech in Jordanian commercial banks using the BAS mediating effect perspective. The analysis seeks to explore how strategic application of data analytics contributes to banking, financial technology efficiency, and innovation. 415 usable questionnaires were obtained from the staff of technical and administrative departments of different Jordanian commercial banks. The data were analyzed using Smart PLS 4, a well-known structural equation modeling software. The results showed BDA to be a positive and significant driver of FinTech performance and definitively confirmed data analytics capabilities to be significant enablers of digital banking transformation. In addition, the study finds that BAS mediates the relationship between BDA-FinTech performances partially. The partial mediation is interpreted to mean that although BDA enhances performance on its own, its effect is more pronounced with the availability of a developed analytics strategy. The paper emphasizes the importance of aligning data activities with organizational strategy in order to realize optimum value. It provides actionable implications for bank managers, policymakers, and technology leaders who are looking to harness the potential of big data to create innovative customer-focused financial solutions. By centering on the BAS role, the research also calls on institutions to commit to investing in analytics governance and strategic planning as central pillars for FinTech growth. In summary, this study adds to the existing literature on digital innovation in banking, particularly in the context of emerging economies such as Jordan.
Reverse Factoring, Environmental Subsidies, and Investment Returns: Panel Evidence from European Logistics Firms
This article evaluates the drivers of investment performance in European logistics, with a focus on the dimensions of supply chain financing and sustainability incentives. Using annual data provided by the Moody’s Orbis (Bureau van Dijk) database, 24 logistics companies in Continental Europe from 2013 to 2024 were analyzed to examine how each of the reverse factoring, environmental subsidies, inventory financing, and liquidity condition affect investment efficiency. Firm performance is measured by return on investment, profit margin, and cost savings. The analysis uses pooled OLS, fixed and random effects panel regression to account for heterogeneity across firms and time. Results indicate that reverse factoring improves the return on investment, highlighting it is important for financial flexibility in logistics. In contrast, inventory financing negatively affects all three of performance measures which reflects collateral borrowing risks. Environmental subsidies have a moderate positive effect, while no cash ratio has a statistically significant effect on performance. The findings as a whole underscore how policies and financing strategies play in investment performance, which will be of use to both corporate operating managers and policy makers.
National Debt Capacity of the Mindanao Economy: A Cointegration Analysis
This paper aims to determine the debt-bearing capacity of Mindanao’s regional economies in relation to the national debt from 2000 to 2024. Obtaining the Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) data sourced from the Philippine Statistics Authority and national debt figures from the Department of Finance, the study computes economic capacity as a function of GRDP-to-debt ratios. Employing the Johansen Cointegration Test, which identifies long-run equilibrium relationships among the six Mindanao regions shows that while Mindanao’s aggregate economic capacity increased significantly, averaging 33% of the national total, regional differences continue. Northern Mindanao and SOCCSKSARGEN exhibit strong capacity and rapid adjustments to disequilibrium, serving as economic stabilizers. While BARMM and Caraga display slower adjustment, reflecting structural constraints. The cointegration analysis reveals that shocks or growth in one region significantly influence others, reinforcing the interdependence of Mindanao’s regional economies. To achieve sustained national debt management and inclusive growth requires regionally integrated policy interventions, investment in infrastructure, and equitable fiscal strategies. A Mindanao-wide development framework, rather than region-specific planning, is essential to maximize the island’s collective capacity and contribution to national wealth.
The Impact of Monetary and Fiscal Policies on Domestic Output: Evidence from ASEAN Economies
This paper investigates the impact of monetary and fiscal policies on domestic output in the ASEAN economies using a panel VAR approach. Among the five macroeconomic variables: gross domestic product (GDP), consumer price index (CPI), exchange rate (EXC), money supply (MS), and government expenditure (GEXP), two variables, such as MS and GEXP, are defined as policy variables. The CPI and EXC played as target variables for displaying external macroeconomic impacts. The model is estimated by the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), where Helmert (forward mean-differencing) transformation is deployed to resolve individual heterogeneity and endogeneity problems. MS and GEXP (one lag) were positive and statistically significant, influencing GDP. On the other hand, higher CPI and EXC showed a negative effect on output, but a positive impact on GDP. Over 10 periods in advance, the explainable variance of GDP was 12.44% explained by government spending and 5.88% by money supply. By comparison, CPI and exchange rate effects supplied 39.05% and 12.40%, respectively. The results suggest that domestic policy actions as well as external macroeconomic conditions significantly influence economic performance among ASEAN countries.
Environmental Taxation and Economic Growth in Africa: A Macroeconomic Panel Data Analysis
Environmental taxation is increasingly recognized as a key tool for achieving sustainable development goals. The Rio Convention (1992), the Kyoto Protocol (1997) and the Paris Agreement (2015) demonstrate the growing global commitment to addressing climate change. These milestones underscore a growing awareness of environmental issues and have encouraged the gradual integration of ecological policies worldwide. In Africa, where environmental and economic challenges are closely interlinked, implementing tax policies that reduce negative environmental impacts while promoting economic growth is crucial. This study examines the impact of environmental taxation on economic growth in Africa and explores how economic growth can be achieved while taking environmental issues into consideration. This paper explores the relationship between environmental taxation and economic growth in Africa between 2000 and 2020 through an econometric analysis of panel data from five African countries: Morocco, Cameroon, South Africa, Niger and Tunisia. Our results show a negative and statistically significant relationship at the 5% level between environmental tax revenues and the growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP). For each one-unit increase in environmental tax revenue as a proportion of total tax revenue, the GDP growth rate decreases by 0.167 units, all else being equal.
Rising Inequality or Regional Strength? Investigating Income Growth Divergence among BRICS Nations
This paper examines income growth dynamics in BRICS economies (1991–2022) using panel data and random-effects estimation. It tests the income convergence hypothesis by analyzing GDP per capita growth and key drivers such as investment, FDI, technology, trade, and education expenditure. Contrary to β-convergence theory, findings show income divergence: higher-income BRICS countries, especially China and India, grow faster than their lower-income peers. The study quantifies divergence speed and illustrates widening income gaps, underscoring the need for structural reforms, innovation-driven investment, and regional cooperation. It also calls for further research accounting for cross-sectional dependence and country- specific heterogeneity.
The Effect of Solvency and Liquidity on Stock Prices Which is Moderate by Profitability
This study aims to examine the influence of Solvency Ratio and Liquidity with Profitability as moderating variables on stock prices of manufacturing companies in the food and beverage sub-sector listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). Profitability is measured using return on assets, solvability is measured using debt to equity ratio, liquidity is measured using current ratio, and stock price uses closing price. This study uses a quantitative research method. The population in this study are manufacturing companies in the food and beverage sub-sector listed on the IDX. This study does not use samples but uses the entire population that has been given criteria, namely 26 companies. The research data was taken for 6 years, from 2018 to 2023, resulting in 136 data processed. The analysis method used is moderated regression analysis (Moderated Regression Analysis) using the SPSS 26 program. The results of this study indicate that liquidity has a significant effect on stock prices, while solvency does not significantly affect stock prices. The results of the moderating variables show that Profitability cannot moderate the influence of liquidity and solvency on stock prices.
The Impact of Board Characteristics on Disclosure Quality before and After Adopting IASs: An Empirical Study on Saudi Joint Stock Companies
This study examines the impact of directors’ characteristics on disclosure quality in Saudi joint stock companies before and after the adoption of international accounting standards. The study employs an inductive approach to analyze quantitative data. The study sample comprises 98 non-financial companies listed on the Saudi Stock Exchange (Tadawul) over two periods: 2011-2016 representing the pre-adoption stage of international standards, and 2017-2022 representing the post-adoption stage. The theoretical framework is grounded in agency, stewardship, and resource dependence theories to explain the impact of directors’ characteristics on disclosure quality, and the relationship between variables is analyzed using multiple regression analysis. The results show that before the adoption of international standards, board size, independence, and role duality had a positive impact on disclosure quality, while board meeting frequency had no effect. In contrast, after the adoption of such standards, board size and role duality no longer had any effect, while the impact of board member independence became negative, and board meeting frequency remained insignificant. This study contributes to the accounting and governance literature by presenting evidence from the Saudi environment on the effect of board characteristics on disclosure quality before and after the adoption of international accounting standards.
Econometric Analysis of Unemloymwent Rate and RGDP Trends Tradeoff Dynamics in Eastern European Countries
The paper provides econometric analysis of unemployment rates (UR) and real GDP (RGDP) trends and their tradeoff dynamics for 11 Eastern EU countries (Poland, Croatia, Czech Republic, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Hungary, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania) from 1996 to 2024. The econometric modeling highlights a range of peculiarities that define their economic landscapes. This investigation reveals that all 11 countries share the common trait of an inverse UR–RGDP relationship, with downturns like 2008 and 2020 triggering UR spikes followed by recoveries tied to RGDP growth, reflecting a shared EU integration trajectory. The peculiarities underscore a spectrum of economic adaptability. Industrial powerhouses like Poland, Czech Republic, and Hungary demonstrate faster UR declines and robust RGDP growth, while tourism-dependent Croatia and tech-driven Estonia show distinct recovery trajectories, highlighting diverse economic adaptability with lagged or non-linear responses. The analysis suggests that diversification, as seen in Romania and Bulgaria with steady RGDP growth moderating UR volatility, enhances economic resilience, while volatile recoveries in Latvia and Lithuania indicate structural rigidities that warrant targeted policy interventions. The findings underscore the importance of diversification and sector-specific resilience in shaping labor market and economic outcomes across the region.
Does Innovation impact the Financial Performance of High-Tech Firms during Different Life Cycle Stages? Evidence from S&P500 Firms
There has been some resurgence of interest in high-tech firms like Google, Amazon, Facebook, and Apple in the era of IoT. The study extends the literature by examining the impact of innovation on firm performance of high-tech firms in the context of firm life cycle stages. Based on the patents and R&D data of 149 high-tech firms from four sectors like communication services, information technology, healthcare and consumer discretionary from 2002 to 2019, our results show that: First, Innovation has a significant relationship with firm performance. Second, patents have a significant and positive relationship with firm performance. Third, R&D is negatively related to firm performance as it is seen as an expenditure. Fourth, the impact of Innovation on firm performance is strongly observed in the decline stage. Fifth, the firm life cycle enhances the impact of Innovation on financial performance more in the information technology and healthcare sectors. Overall, the fixed-effect model is preferred across all estimations, and firm size and age explain firm performance. Our findings provide some stylised facts of high-tech firms on Innovation and firm performance over their life cycle.
Graduate Unemployment Hinders Economic Growth in Indonesia: Does Government Spending on Education Matters?
This paper attempts to examine the impact of graduate unemployment on economic growth in Indonesia. Time series data has been included from year 1990 to 2022 and consists of two stages of data analysis. The first stage analysis to identify long-run cointegration between graduate unemployment (GUEM), government spending in education (GEDU), inflation (INF) and foreign direct investment (FDI) towards economic growth by applying the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach as an estimation method. Second stage analysis determines strength of the relationship by using standard asymptotic Chi-square in Wald test. The findings found that GUEM, GEDU and INF own a significant long run cointegration towards economic growth in Indonesia. This outcome suggests the GUEM lower economic growth due to existence of large mismatch between demand skills by employer and graduate supply by Higher Education which reduce productivity of the whole economy. Meanwhile government spending on education should focus on providing a better infrastructure in higher education to produce quality graduate that matches job requirement in labor market. Overall, the outcomes of this study provide benefits for policymakers to align job demand and production of marketable university graduates from higher education hence boost the economic growth in future.
Estimating Time-varying Fiscal Multipliers in South Africa Using Bayesian Dynamic Linear Model
This study investigates the evolution and state-dependence of fiscal multipliers in South Africa from 1961Q1 to 2025Q1 using quarterly data on real GDP, government expenditure, inflation, interest rates, and the ZAR/USD exchange rate. Inflation and interest rate data were sourced from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, while the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) provided GDP, fiscal expenditure, and exchange rate series. Employing a Bayesian Dynamic Linear Model (BDLM), the analysis captures both gradual structural changes and differences in fiscal policy effectiveness across economic growth regimes. The results reveal a marked increase in fiscal multipliers over time, from negative or near-zero values in the early 1960s to approximately 0.08–0.09 in recent years. This upward trend reflects structural shifts such as the democratic transition, expanded public service delivery, infrastructure investment, and improved macroeconomic coordination. However, the estimates also show strong state dependence: the multiplier is significantly larger during high-growth periods (0.0509) than in low-growth periods (0.0006), where it is statistically indistinguishable from zero. This pattern contrasts with advanced economy evidence, where multipliers are often stronger in recessions, and suggests that structural bottlenecks—such as energy shortages, rigid labour markets, and weak investor confidence—limit fiscal effectiveness during downturns in South Africa. The findings imply that fiscal policy has historically reinforced growth momentum rather than reversing contractions. Enhancing its countercyclical potency will require structural reforms alongside targeted public investment. The study underscores the value of state-contingent fiscal planning, supported by real-time monitoring of multiplier dynamics, as a means to maximise growth impacts while maintaining fiscal sustainability.
Board Characteristics and Integrated Reporting Quality in Nigeria and South African Manufacturing Firms
The effect of board characteristics on the quality of integrated reporting has raised concerns about governance effectiveness, transparency and stakeholder trust in emerging economies. This study, therefore, examined the effects of board characteristics on integrated reporting quality on listed manufacturing firms in Nigeria and South Africa. The study explored a purposive sampling technique to select 40 manufacturing firms in each country. The data for the study originates from the annual reports and accounts of the selected manufacturing firms from 2012 to 2023. The study utilized panel feasible generalized least squares regression in analyzing the data. The findings from the analysis reveal that board size, board meeting, board shareholding and board independence have significant effects on integrated reporting quality as it relates to the Nigerian manufacturing firms, while the same for South African manufacturing firms, except for board meetings. The study concludes that board attributes have a significant effect on the integrated reporting quality of manufacturing firms in both countries. The study recommends, among others, that both countries should strengthen the role of independent directors through better training and oversight to improve reporting outcomes.
Managing Commodity-Driven Inflation Risk: The Role of Domestic Price-Setting Policies in ASEAN+3
This study examined the impact of global oil price volatility on inflation risk in ASEAN+3 economies from 2015 to 2024. Using a Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) approach, the analysis introduces the Price-Setting Policy Index (PSPI) as a policy-based instrumental variable to capture domestic interventions, including fuel subsidies, price controls, and tax adjustments. The model utilizes a balanced quarterly panel dataset comprising trade openness, interest rates, FDI, and oil prices. Findings indicated that oil price shocks have only a marginal effect on inflation under current policy frameworks. However, counterfactual simulations suggest stronger inflationary responses in the absence of intervention, highlighting the risk-buffering role of fiscal institutions. The limited significance of traditional monetary controls points to a shift in inflation dynamics toward institutional and policy- driven factors. This study contributes to the literature on inflation risk and financial policy by presenting PSPI as a practical tool for macroeconomic risk management. The framework offers insights for policymakers in emerging markets to design adaptive, context-specific inflation control strategies. Future research may apply nonlinear models and dynamic PSPI indices to better capture evolving risks in volatile energy markets.
Social Grants as a Lifeline: Assessing Their Impact on Poverty Reduction in African Countries
The study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of social grants in reducing poverty across ten African countries: South Africa, Kenya, Nigeria, Ghana, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, Botswana, Namibia, and Ethiopia. It seeks to understand how these programs influence household income, poverty rates, and access to essential services within inclusive development. The study employs a Difference-in-Differences (DiD) approach and a Fixed Effects (FE) regression model to assess the impact of social grants from 2019 to 2023. The analysis is grounded in Keynesian economics and Amartya Sen's capabilities approach, providing economic and human development perspectives. Findings indicate that social grants contribute to measurable improvements in household income, poverty reduction, and service access. The results further stressed that key constraints were identified as poor targeting, fiscal limitations, and potential long-term dependency. Social grants are effective tools for poverty alleviation, and their design and implementation require refinement to enhance sustainability and impact. The study provides robust empirical evidence and practical recommendations to policymakers and stakeholders. It supports expanding and optimising social grants as part of broader strategies for economic resilience, social inclusion, and equitable growth across Africa.
The Impact of Financial Factors on Financial Distress in Life Insurance Companies: The Moderating Role of ESG
The study aims to examine the influence of financial factors, consisting of: Leverage (DAR), Insurance Claims (KA), Liquidity (CR), Risk-Based Capital (RBC), and Sales Growth (SG) on Financial Distress (FD) with the role of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) as a moderating variable. The study was conducted on insurance sector companies registered with the Indonesian Financial Services Authority (OJK) from 2020 to 2023. This study used a panel data regression method on 26 selected insurance companies. The results of the study from the model without the role of moderating variables found that DAR, RBC, SG, and ESG did not affect FD. At the same time, KA and CR had a positive impact on the likelihood of insurance companies experiencing FD. Different findings were revealed in the model with the role of ESG as a moderating variable; KA was positively related to FD, and the interaction of ESG with CR strengthened its influence on the likelihood of insurance companies experiencing FD. To our knowledge, this study, which investigates the determinants of FD with the role of the moderating variable ESH in insurance companies in Indonesia, has never been studied before. Furthermore, this study provides valuable information for regulators and policymakers to improve liquidity, insurance claim payments, and ESG practices in the insurance sector.
The Nexus of Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth from the Open Economy Perspective
The purpose of this research is to study the impact of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on Malaysian GDP growth under the analysis based on a time series model for the period 1974-2023. The purpose of this research is to study how FDI, exports, and inflation will respond to each other in creating Malaysian economic growth based on ARDL and ARIMA models. The study uses secondary data from sources like the World Bank. It tests the variables for stationarity and models short-run and long-run dynamics using ARDL. The ARIMA model is applied to forecast GDP trends. The background includes Malaysia’s economic transformation from a rural-based to an export-oriented industrial base. The literature review confirms prior empirical evidence supporting FDI’s contribution to capital accumulation, technology transfer, and productivity, moderated by institutional quality and inflation. The ARDL results reveal a statistically significant long-run relationship between FDI and GDP growth, while exports and inflation exert opposite impacts. Based on the ARIMA model, there is an expected positive and consistent pattern of GDP growth through 2030, in support of the long-term FDI benefit to economic performance. This report stresses the importance of judicious macroeconomic policies, human capital formation, trade openness, regulatory reform, and infrastructure building in sustaining FDI inflows as well as the future growth of Malaysia.
Corruption and Economic Development in the SADC Region: A Nonlinear Panel ARDL Approach
Many African nations, particularly those within the Southern African Development Community (SADC), face significant challenges due to pervasive corruption. The impact of corruption on economic wellbeing has been scrutinised for years, with its impact ranging from economic growth and development, foreign direct investment, its impact on living standards, service delivery, and poverty levels. The existing literature presents two contrasting views: the “sand the wheels” hypothesis, which posits that corruption hampers economic development, and the “grease the wheels” hypothesis, which argues the opposite. This study seeks to determine the asymmetric impact of corruption on economic development and to model a corruption threshold that has a non-detrimental impact on economic development. Employing a nonlinear panel autoregressive distributed lag model and a panel threshold model. The study reveals that changes in corruption levels have influence on economic development, with reductions in corruption being particularly more beneficial. The findings suggest that corruption impedes development, especially when corruption levels are below a threshold of 0.64, measured by control of corruption indicators, and 41 on the corruption perception index. The results underscore the necessity of concerted efforts to combat corruption to foster improved economic development in SADC countries. This study outlines several policies for eradicating corruption.
The Influence of Trading Activity in Price Discovery of Reissued Bonds in Sub-National Bond Markets in India
This study investigates the pricing determinants of reissued Indian state government bonds (State Development Loans), focusing on the influence of secondary market dynamics. Analysing a panel of 36 unique bonds across 163 reissue events, it explores how past market behavior shapes outcomes in the primary auction market. The research employs a dynamic panel data model using the Arellano-Bond Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator, effectively addressing endogeneity and bond-specific unobserved effects. Key independent variables include the volume-weighted average price (VWAP), trading volume from the secondary market, bond maturity, and macroeconomic controls such as the policy repo rate. Findings reveal that secondary market VWAP and trading volume significantly impact reissue pricing, while the repo rate plays a limited role. Notably, in 78.5% of reissues, bonds are priced below their secondary market VWAP, with an average discount of −0.58, reflecting investor yield expectations in light of fixed coupon structures. These insights have important implications for public debt management, suggesting that secondary market sentiment drives primary market pricing. While central bond price discovery is well-studied, this paper uniquely addresses the neglected area of reissue pricing at the subnational level, offering valuable empirical evidence on auction dynamics and market efficiency in India’s state bond markets.
Does ESG Performance Enhance Financial Outcomes? Empirical Evidence from Indian FMCG Sector
This study aims to evaluate the current status of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) performance within the Indian Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) sector and to empirically investigate the impact of both aggregated and disaggregated ESG dimensions on firms’ financial performance (FP). The research adopts a cross-sectional analytical framework based on secondary data from a sample of 80 Indian FMCG companies for the financial year 2024–25. ESG performance indicators were sourced from the Credit Rating Information Services of India Limited (CRISIL), while data pertaining to financial performance metrics were obtained from annual reports of the concerned companies. Descriptive statistics were utilized to assess the current ESG landscape in this sector. To examine the relationship between ESG and FP, Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression models were employed, with ESG (overall and individual dimensions) as independent variables and financial performance, proxied by Return on Net Worth (RONW), as dependent variables. The findings reveal that among the three ESG pillars, the Indian FMCG sector places the greatest emphasis on governance, followed by social and environmental considerations, where the environmental dimension receives the least attention. The regression analysis shows that RONW is significantly and positively influenced by environmental and governance performance, as well as overall ESG scores. However, the social dimension exhibits an insignificant impact on both financial performance indicators. These results suggest a partial integration of ESG principles, with firms deriving more tangible financial benefits from governance and environmental initiatives than from social initiatives. This study contributes to the growing ESG-finance literature by offering fresh insights into the Indian FMCG sector-an under-explored domain in emerging economies. It highlights the different effects of disaggregated ESG dimensions on firm performance and provides actionable implications for managers, investors, and policymakers seeking to align sustainability efforts with financial objectives.
The Impact of Debt Management on the Economic Development of Nigeria
Debt can serve as a fiscal policy tool to enhance a nation's economic growth if managed efficiently. Government debt management is a response initiative used to stabilize the economy while ensuring sustainable growth. This study examined the effect of debt management on economic growth in Nigeria. Ex-post facto research design was employed for the study. The study’s population encompassed the Nigerian economy, as measured through debt management and economic growth indicators, over thirty years from 1994 to 2023. The total enumeration sampling technique was employed. Data for the research were obtained from Nigeria’s Statistical Bulletin, the Debt Management Office, and the National Bureau of Statistics. Data were analyzed using E-views (version 12.0) to produce both Descriptive and Inferential statistics (ARDL regression). The findings revealed that debt management significantly affects economic growth (Adj.R2= 0.47, F (3, 26) = 26.26, p<0.05). The study concluded that debt management has a significant impact on economic growth in Nigeria. The study recommended that the government should adopt prudent debt management strategies, such as prioritizing concessional loans, reducing the share of external debt, and ensuring that borrowed funds are channeled into productive sectors for high returns.
Econometric Analysis of Factors Influencing the Efficiency of Banking Services
As a result of increasing the efficiency of banking services, the possibility of increasing competitiveness, full satisfaction of customer needs and profitability increases. This article examines various strategies and effects that can be used to optimize banking services. In addition, the article analyzes factors that affect the increase in interest income of Agrobank JSCB, such as the volume of Agrobank JSCB's assets, the volume of remote banking services provided by Agrobank JSCB, the inflation rate, the ROE coefficient of Agrobank JSCB, and ways to reduce operating costs. As a result, a 1% increase in the volume of assets of Agrobank JSCB will increase the bank's profit margin by 0.50%, a 1% increase in remote banking services of Agrobank JSCB will increase the bank's profit margin by 1.25%, and a 1% increase in the inflation rate will reduce the bank's profit margin by 0.98%. Also, a 1% increase in the return on equity (ROE) of Agrobank JSCB will increase the bank's profit margin by 0.50%. It should be noted that banks that invest in these areas can achieve a significant increase in operational efficiency and overall financial indicators in providing services. In the study, the multiple linear regression (LS) model demonstrates that the fusion of factors such as the asset volume of "Agrobank" JSCB, the volume of remote banking services, the return on equity (ROE) coefficient, and the inflation rate has a positive relationship with the bank's total interest income. The integrated impact of these variables contributes significantly to the improvement of the bank’s financial performance indicators.
Investigating the Principal Factors Influencing Bank Performance in South Africa: A Comprehensive Analysis
The paper aims to explore the impact of the Capital Adequacy Ratio, Net Profit Funding, Funding to Deposit Ratio, and Operations Costs to Operational Revenue on profitability evaluated by return on assets. This research examines the banking industry, particularly the banks listed on the South Africa Stock Exchange from 2022 to 2024. This period was chosen to collect more recent data, which would enhance comprehension of the sector's present situation. The analysis indicates that the CAR value exceeds the expected significance value, suggesting that CAR does not significantly impact production. A consistently high CAR indicates that the bank is in a robust position, which often enhances performance in generating profits. The findings of this analysis demonstrate that the magnitude of the bank's capital adequacy ratio (CAR) does not significantly correlate with an increase in profit. Banking professionals are advised to prioritise the management of operational profitability and to mitigate the non-performing financing ratio (NPF) to ensure sustainable growth in bank profitability.
Identifying Macroeconomic Factors that Affect the Share Prices of JSE-Listed Firms
This research was undertaken to investigate the effect of macroeconomic indicators on the share prices of the top 40 JSE-listed firms. This study employed a mixed exploratory design and used secondary data. A mixed-method approach was followed by applying a systematic review and an empirical analysis. The findings of this paper demonstrated that strong, positive correlations exist between share prices and macroeconomic factors. CPI, exchange rates, GDP and money supply were strongly correlated with share prices. It was also found that identical correlations exist between share prices, CPI, GDP and money supply. This indicates that CPI, GDP and money supply reflect similar aspect of economic activity. The application of multiple regression analysis demonstrated that 97.1% of changes in share price of the sampled firms can be estimated through the modelling of CPI, exchange rates and repo rates. In conclusion, it is posited that macroeconomic factors affect the share price of the top 40 JSE-listed firms and that such an effect cannot be avoided by the firm.
The Impact of Informality on Inclusive Growth in Developing Countries: Does Institutional Quality Matter?
Inclusive growth, a critical measure of national progress, has gained significant attention from policymakers due to the persistent issues of income inequality and poverty despite economic growth. This paper explores the impact of informality on inclusive growth in developing countries and mediating role of institutional quality on inclusive growth-informality nexus. For empirical analysis, the study employs the system GMM approach to examine how informality affect inclusive growth over the period 2008-2020. An inclusive growth index is constructed using the social opportunity function, and since inclusive growth is a multidimensional concept, multiple variables are used to better capture its different facets of inclusive growth. These variables include the Human Development Index (HDI), the Gender Inequality Index (GII), carbon emissions, income growth of the bottom 40% (Growth 40), and real GDP per person employed. The empirical findings revealed that informality, such as vulnerable, dynamic general based measure of informal economy and MMIC-based measure of informal economy, negatively affects inclusive growth, with self-employment showing an insignificant impact. Importantly, institutional quality plays a crucial mediating role in the relationship between informality and inclusive growth. Further the study also construct indifference curves for selected developing countries to show their growth inclusiveness. Finally, the study suggests policies to promote innovative activities, improve the institutional framework, and encourage formalization to enhance inclusive growth in developing countries.
Regional Investment, Fiscal Transfers, and Local Revenues: An Analysis of Working Capital Lending by Regional Development Banks in Indonesia
This study explores the influence of fiscal and macroeconomic factors on working capital loan allocation by Regional Development Banks (RDBs) in Indonesia, with particular attention to how regional investment, government transfers, and economic growth contribute to credit distribution at the provincial level. The research employs multiple regression analysis on 180 panel data observations from 16 RDBs, using secondary data collected from regional financial statistics and annual RDB reports spanning the period 2013–2021. Eight explanatory variables are examined: domestic investment, foreign direct investment (FDI), general allocation funds (DAU), special allocation funds (DAK), local retributions, local taxes, proceeds from the management of separated regional assets, and provincial economic growth. The findings reveal that DAU has a statistically significant negative effect on credit disbursement, suggesting that high fiscal dependency may weaken financial autonomy and reduce the perceived creditworthiness of borrowing regions. Conversely, revenue from separated regional assets exhibits a strong positive impact, highlighting the role of productive asset management in enhancing access to credit. While both domestic and foreign investment show positive coefficients, their effects are statistically insignificant, possibly due to concentration in capital-intensive sectors with limited direct impact on micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs). Local taxes exert a significant negative influence, whereas local retribution and provincial economic growth do not significantly affect lending behavior. The results underline the importance of fiscal structure, financial independence, and institutional governance in shaping regional credit markets. Policy efforts aimed at improving local asset productivity and reducing dependency on central transfers are essential to strengthen regional financial ecosystems and promote inclusive economic development. These findings contribute to broader policy discussions on fiscal decentralization and subnational financing within emerging economies.
Resilience of the Bucharest Nine Countries in the Context of Global Turbulence
Ensuring the resilience of the Bucharest Nine (B9) countries is crucial for regional and Euro-Atlantic security, with the challenges such as Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, hybrid warfare threats, regional tensions, etc. The goal of this research is to assess the resilience levels of the B9 countries and to identify aspects of their vulnerabilities and capacities to withstand global turbulence. This study analyses the Resilience Dashboards by the European Commission. The findings indicate that most B9 countries have a medium level of vulnerability, aligning with the EU27 average, while their capacity levels remain below the EU27 average. The analysis highlights that B9 countries demonstrate medium socio-economic resilience, with improvements in employment but persistent challenges in health and education with Czechia being the most resilient in this category. In green resilience, Estonia, Czechia, and Poland perform best, though still below the EU27 average, while Bulgaria and Romania face significant environmental challenges. Digital resilience shows notable positive shifts, with improvements in cybersecurity and digital skills, but challenges persist in broadband access and online public services. Estonia leads in digital resilience, while Bulgaria and Romania lag. Geopolitical resilience is at medium level. Hungary, Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia have the highest geopolitical capacities, whereas Romania remains the most vulnerable.
Does Corporate Social Responsibility Affect Liquidity Risk? Evidence from GCC and non-GCC countries
This study investigates the CSR-liquidity risk nexus in the banking sector of the MENA region. Growing concerns about financial stability and sustainable banking establishments prompt this study to examine whether CSR activities may reduce liquidity risk in an economic environment of volatility and regulatory disparity. A panel dataset of 40 commercial banks operating in ten MENA countries from 2010 to 2022 was used in the analysis, with estimation carried out with the System Generalized Method of Moment estimator to take care of issues of endogeneity and dynamics. To better reflect regional specificities, the sample gets further disaggregated into the GCC region and non-GCC region. The results of the estimations show that CSR is negatively related to liquidity risk in the whole sample. This reveals that socially responsible banks suffer from lesser liquidity constraints. However, the insignificance of this relationship for banks outside the GCC countries could be due to the relatively weaker institutional structures and low awareness of CSR among stakeholders, whereas for banks inside the GCC, CSR does significantly affect liquidity risk management because of better institutional provisions and expectation standards. These results are helpful for bank mangers and policymakers by pointing out the importance of including CSR as part of risk management. The study contributes to literature with new knowledge about the relationship between CSR and liquidity risk in emerging economies, particularly in the context of the MENA banking systems.
Tourism Inflow and Economic Growth in South Africa: The Role of Digital Inclusion
The importance of digital inclusion in promoting economic growth remains widely debated, particularly in the light of its impact on the framework of tourism-economic growth. Growing support from the government, legislators, and civil society in South Africa highlights how vital it is to address digital inequality through inclusive digital efforts. Nevertheless, there is still a lack of empirical data assessing how digital inclusion affects the relationship between tourism and economic expansion in South Africa. The neoclassical growth theory, which emphasizes technology as a crucial component of economic progress, serves as the foundation for this study. It also incorporates the tourist-led growth hypothesis, which emphasizes tourism as a major driver of economic performance. The results show that labour force participation and gross fixed capital formation have a major impact on South Africa's economic growth, but trade openness, the interaction of digital inclusion and tourism, and tourism inflows do not seem to be the main drivers of economic growth in South Africa. The study concludes that the synergy between tourism and digital inclusion currently lacks a substantial impact on economic growth. As a policy response, the study advocates for streamlined visa procedures, improved security and infrastructure to support sustained tourist arrivals, and a comprehensive national strategy to expand internet access, develop digital infrastructure, and enhance digital literacy, particularly in historically marginalized rural communities with high tourism potential.
Improving Causality Tests: Feed-forward Causality with Neural Networks and Machine Learning
This paper develops a Feed-forward Neural Causality Test (FFNCT), a methodological improvement that addresses several limitations of causal inference for complex relationships between time series. Traditional causality tests often fail to capture nonlinear dynamics, regime-dependent relationships, and asymmetric responses. Drawing on recent advances in machine learning and neural networks, this paper improves several causality tests, increasing the ability to detect complex patterns in time series. This research provides both theoretical justification and empirical validation through a comparative analysis against traditional Granger causality and seven competing neural network–based alternatives, employing several performance metrics and cross-validation. To illustrate the proposed methodology, this paper analyzes the Phillips curve relationship using monthly U.S. data from 1948 to 2024. Empirical findings using FFNCT reveal statistically significant reverse causality between inflation and unemployment in the full sample, a result that challenges the prevailing belief. Moreover, the proposed regime-specific analysis reveals substantial heterogeneity in causal directionality across different periods, with some regimes exhibiting traditional Phillips curve causality (i.e., unemployment leading to inflation) and others exhibiting reverse or bidirectional causality. These empirical findings suggest more nuanced transmission channels between inflation and employment than conventional models. Therefore, this regime-dependent approach explains historical inconsistencies in Phillips curve analyses and demonstrates why flexible methodologies, such as FFNCT, are important for causal inference.
Pecking Order Theory and Financing Decisions: Evidence from African Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises
Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are widely recognized as the backbone of African economies, yet they face persistent financing constraints that limit growth and competitiveness. Understanding how these firms prioritize financing sources is therefore central to both academic debates and policy interventions. This paper investigates the relevance of the Pecking Order Theory (POT) in explaining financing decisions of African SMEs, focusing on whether firms follow the hierarchical order of using internal funds first, then debt, and finally external equity when facing financing needs. Drawing on firm-level data from recent World Bank Enterprise Surveys and complementary national datasets, we test the applicability of POT using the financing-deficit approach proposed by Shyam-Sunder and Myers (1999) and dynamic panel models to account for heterogeneity across countries, firm age, and sector. The results show partial support for POT. Consistent with theory, African SMEs demonstrate a strong preference for internal financing, followed by debt when internal resources are insufficient. However, deviations emerge in contexts of high credit constraints, weak collateral systems, and underdeveloped financial reporting practices, where some firms rely directly on external equity, grants, or owner injections. Regulatory quality and country-level institutional environments further moderate the hierarchy of financing, with firms in more transparent and stable settings adhering more closely to POT predictions. This study contributes to the literature by providing cross-country African evidence on SME capital structure, highlighting how institutional frictions and firm-specific factors shape financing behavior. The findings have practical implications: for managers, sequencing financing in line with POT can reduce costs of capital and dependence on external equity; for policymakers, strengthening credit information systems, collateral registries, and SME accounting frameworks could improve debt access and reinforce efficient financing hierarchies. Overall, the paper underlines that while POT remains a useful benchmark, African SMEs’ financing decisions are shaped by both firm-level opacity and broader institutional constraints. These insights expand the theoretical and practical understanding of capital structure in emerging economies and inform policies aimed at bridging the SME financing gap.
Evaluating the Impact of Tax Policy Changes on Economic Growth in South Africa
This study investigates how tax policy changes affect economic growth in South Africa, focusing on personal income tax (PIT), corporate income tax (CIT), and value-added tax (VAT), alongside the roles of savings and consumption. Using secondary time-series data from 2000 to 2022 and applying a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model, the study finds that both PIT and CIT negatively influences GDP growth. CIT has the most significant impact—a 1% increase results in a 37.3% drop in GDP—while PIT also contributes to economic decline, though to a lesser extent. In contrast, savings and consumption positively affect growth, with consumption notably boosting GDP. VAT, while included as a key tax, has only a marginal effect on economic performance. The findings suggest that in a developing country like South Africa, the burden and impact of taxation differ from those in more advanced economies. Importantly, the study challenges the common assumption that all forms of taxation support growth equally. It recommends that policymakers consider lowering PIT and CIT to encourage investment and consumption, while also introducing incentives to promote savings. VAT should be regulated to avoid dampening consumer spending. The study concludes by calling for broader research, incorporating other macroeconomic indicators such as employment and investment, to deepen understanding of the full impact of tax policy on economic growth.
An Analysis of the Effects of Monetary Policy and Price Stability on the Economic Growth of South Africa
Economic growth is regarded as one of the key determinants which is utilized by developed and developing countries to measure economic activities success through Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of monetary policy and price stability on the economic growth of South Africa from 1997 to 2023. South Africa is failing to meet its inflation goals, for instance, in the last decade it missed five times of opportunities, which raises concerns about the efficiency of using inflation targeting as a monetary policy framework to achieve price stability and sustainable economic growth. Time series data was used, sourced from the World Bank data platform. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique was used based on the unit root test outcomes which display a mixture of I (0) and I (1) on variables. The findings showed that money supply, inflation, and exchange rate are negatively related to GDP growth while interest rate reveals a positive influence towards economic growth in the long run. This study has contributed to the academic literature by providing an in-depth analysis of how different aspects of monetary policy, specifically money supply and interest rates affect economic growth in South Africa.
Market Risk Assessment: A Comparison between CAPM and VaR Methodologies with High Volatility Episodes in the Mexican Stock Market
This study aims to estimate the β-CAPM for firms listed on the Mexican Stock Exchange Price Index (IPC) by incorporating Value at Risk (VaR) measures during periods of high market volatility. We apply five risk estimation methodologies: (1) Historical Simulation VaR (VaR-SH), (2) Delta-Normal VaR (VaR-δN), (3) Monte Carlo Simulation VaR (VaR-MC), (4) Threshold-GARCH-based VaR (TGARCH-VaR), and (5) Expected Shortfall (ES). The results demonstrate consistency across the different methodologies during high-volatility periods. Nonetheless, we identify two important limitations: β-CAPM is constrained to equity portfolios, and VaR-based methods may underestimate tail risk during extreme market events. This study enhances the understanding of market risk exposure in the Mexican stock market by offering a comparative analysis of multiple VaR methodologies. It provides a valuable reference for assessing the relative riskiness of individual securities against the market portfolio, especially under conditions of financial stress.
Governance Structure, CEO Attributes, and Profit Efficiency of listed securities Firms in Vietnam: New Evidence on Gender Diversity and Board Independence
This study examines the impact of board and CEO characteristics on the profit efficiency of securities companies in a developing market context. Using panel data of 35 listed securities companies in Vietnam during the period–2015-2023 and applying the Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) method, this study provides new evidence on the governance-performance nexus in the securities sector, which is characterized by high volatility and strong competition. The results indicate that securities firms with female CEOs and a higher ratio of independent directors demonstrate lower profit efficiency levels, while a higher participation of female members on the board of directors significantly impacts firm outcomes. Further analysis shows that the beneficial impact of female directors reduces as firms grow larger, suggesting potential constraints on women’s influence in larger organizations. In addition, the adverse effect of board independence is reduced in companies that are larger, have a higher level of foreign ownership, a higher leverage ratio, and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Based on the results, this study provides practical recommendations for regulators and securities firms to strengthen board structures, promote effective female participation, and enhance governance mechanisms tailored to firm-specific and external conditions.
The Indonesian MSME Compass: Navigating Sustainable Performance with Innovation, Dynamic Capabilities, and Green Entrepreneurial Mindset
This study investigates the role of innovation (INV), dynamic capabilities (DCS), and green entrepreneurial orientation (GEO) in enhancing the sustainability performance of micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) in Indonesia. The study uses quantitative methods, with primary data using questionnaire through google form with a total of 162 respondents consisted of owners, directors, managers, and supervisors from MSMEs in Jakarta and Tangerang area (Indonesia). Data processed using SPSS and Smart PLS as a stastistical tool. The study finds that innovation, dynamic capabilities, and green entrepreneurial orientation significantly influence sustainability performance. Based on these insights, this study recommends that MSMEs should prioritize on strengthening team dynamic capabilities to foster resilience, enhancing innovation to improve competitiveness, and integrating green entrepreneurial orientation into strategic practices. Collectively, these efforts can substantially improve sustainability performance across economic, environmental, and social dimensions. By focusing on sustainability performance, MSMEs play a pivotal role in reducing income disparities and supporting national economic growth, thereby directly contributing directly to the realization of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, particularly SDG 8 on Decent Work and Economic Growth.
Financial Determinants of Corporate Social Performance: Empirical Evidence from Panel Data on Moroccan Listed Firms (2018-2023)
This study examines the financial determinants of corporate social performance (CSP) among firms listed on the Casablanca Stock Exchange over the period 2018–2023. Using balanced panel data and applying both Probit and Logit models, the analysis investigates whether profitability, financing capacity, firm size, and market valuation influence the likelihood of CSR engagement. The results reveal that return on equity (ROE) and return on sales (ROS) are consistently significant and positive drivers of CSP, while financial cash flows (CFF) also exert a positive influence in the Logit specification. Net income (RN) shows a marginal positive effect, suggesting that overall profitability supports CSR adoption, although less robustly. Conversely, earnings per share (EPS), return on assets (ROA), sales revenue (CA), and price-to-book ratio (P/B) do not significantly affect CSP in the Moroccan context. These findings highlight the central role of financial profitability and liquidity in enabling firms to allocate resources toward social responsibility. The study contributes to the literature by providing new evidence from an emerging economy, underscoring that in contexts where CSR practices are still developing, financial strength remains the key driver of responsible business conduct.
The Role of Digital Economy in Reducing Economic Disparities: A Bibliometric Review
The main objective of this study is to map scholarly articles on the area of the role of the digital economy in bridging regional economic disparity, and to establish an analytical framework of current developments, emerging trends, and future directions. This study employs a comprehensive bibliometric analysis, which includes bibliographic coupling and co-word analysis to develop an analytical framework that captures recent developments, prevailing trends, and future directions in this field. The current themes identified through bibliographic coupling highlighted that the digital economy is recognized as a crucial driver in reducing regional economic disparity through the spillover mechanism. Nevertheless, the co-word analysis identified the digital divide and uneven agglomeration as emerging trends and key challenges for regional development in the future. The originality of this study lies in its specific focus on the complex role of the digital economy in reducing regional economic disparity. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this particular intersection has not been examined exhaustively with bibliometric methods, and this study is the first of its kind in this respect, offering a nuanced understanding that bridges digital transformation research with regional development scholarship.
Empowering Rural Revitalization: Integrated Development of Rural Industries Driven by E-commerce and Empirical Analysis
With the rapid development of the digital economy, e-commerce has become a key driver in promoting rural industrial integration and economic growth. This study constructs a theoretical framework to analyze the coupling and coordination relationships among e-commerce, specialty agriculture, and rural tourism, aiming to explore their synergistic effects on rural revitalization. Based on a comprehensive evaluation index system, this research applies the entropy weight method and the coupling coordination degree model to assess the integration dynamics of these three industries. Using panel data from 2013 to 2023, the study reveals the evolving interconnections between e-commerce and rural industries. Results show that integration has significantly improved, with e-commerce playing a central role in optimizing rural structures. Specifically, the coupling degree between e-commerce and rural tourism is found to be higher than that between e-commerce and specialty agriculture, highlighting the role of digital platforms in expanding rural tourism markets. This research establishes a systematic approach for evaluating rural industry integration under e-commerce and provides empirical insights into rural industrial transformation. The findings offer theoretical and practical implications for policymakers and stakeholders to foster sustainable, coordinated rural development through digital innovation.
Determinant Factors Enhancing the Financial Accountability of Village-Owned Enterprises
The uniqueness of BUMDes in terms of business form and purpose is what makes financial accountability important to be presented in the management of BUMDes to ensure that village funds are used effectively and efficiently, and maintain public trust in the management of BUMDes itself. Therefore, this study was conducted to examine the factors that affect financial accountability both directly and indirectly. The research data collected were from 434 respondents from the BUMDes Management in Banten Province. Furthermore, the data was analyzed using SmartPLS 4 Software using SEM-PLS after validity and reliability testing. The results of the study show that the information technology utilization, implementation and administration, as well as internal control systems, have a significant effect on financial accountability through the mediation of the financial reporting quality. Although the information technology utilization, implementation and administration, and internal control systems directly affect the financial reporting quality, the three have not been proven to have a direct effect on financial accountability. In addition, human resource competence has not been proven to have an effect either directly or indirectly on financial accountability or the quality of financial reporting.
Inclusive and Efficient Finance as Catalysts for Foreign Investment in Sub-Saharan Africa
Despite extensive research on external capital flows, limited attention has been given to the joint determinants of remittances and foreign direct investment (FDI) within an integrated financial–institutional–infrastructural framework. Existing studies often assess these flows separately, overlooking the dynamic interdependence between financial inclusion, efficiency, institutional quality, and infrastructural access. This study addresses this gap by examining how these factors simultaneously shape remittance and FDI inflows using a comprehensive panel dataset. Employing advanced econometric approaches—including second-generation panel unit root and cointegration tests, CS-ARDL, AMG, CCEMG estimators, and dynamic System-GMM—the analysis captures long-run equilibrium, short-run dynamics, and addresses endogeneity concerns. The findings reveal that financial inclusion, efficiency, institutional strength, and energy access are significant drivers of both remittances and FDI, though their effects differ in magnitude and persistence across models. By documenting bidirectional causality, particularly between remittances and financial inclusion and between FDI and institutional quality, the study highlights the reinforcing feedback between external flows and domestic systems. These results contribute to the literature by offering an integrated perspective and provide policy insights for strengthening financial deepening, institutional credibility, and infrastructure readiness to mobilize remittances and attract sustainable FDI.
Innovation Determinants in Morocco: A Quantitative Analysis
Innovation is a major economic and social development cornerstone, boosting productivity, creating jobs and strengthening the competitiveness of nations and organizations. This paper explores the determinants of innovation in Morocco through a quantitative analysis, combining a literature review and statistical analysis via Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modeling. The results reveal that R&D expenditure (% of GDP), the number of R&D researchers and the number of patent registration have a positive and significant impact on Morocco's innovation index. a 1% increase in Morocco's GDP from R&D expenditure could boost its global innovation index (GII) by more than 19 points, while each additional 1,000 researchers per million people and each 1,000 patents registered could add 5 and 6 points respectively. These results underline the importance of R&D investment, human capital and intellectual property protection. However, variables such as public spending on education, the number of ISO-certified organizations and enrolment in higher education show no significant effect, revealing a misalignment between current policies and national needs for innovation promotion. To realize its potential, Morocco needs to adopt effective measures and national strategy, could make Morocco a major innovator at regional and international level.
The Effect of Financial Inclusion on Nigeria’s Real Economic Growth
This study investigated the effect of financial inclusion on economic development in Nigeria over the period 1990–2023. Using an ex-post facto research design, secondary data were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin and the World Development Indicators (WDI). The growth rate of GDP per capita was employed as a proxy for economic development, while financial inclusion was captured through commercial bank loans to rural areas, deposits from rural areas, credits to small and medium-scale enterprises (SMEs), and the number of bank branches in rural areas. Descriptive statistics, unit root tests, the Johansen co-integration approach, and the Error Correction Model (ECM) were employed, with diagnostic tests ensuring the robustness of results. The findings revealed a long-run relationship among the variables, indicating that financial inclusion and economic development move together over time. Specifically, commercial bank loans to rural areas, deposits from rural areas, and SME credits were all found to significantly and positively impact economic growth. The presence of bank branches in rural areas also contributed positively to growth by expanding financial infrastructure and enabling broader access to financial services. These results emphasize that financial inclusion is a critical driver of Nigeria’s economic GROWTH. The study concluded that policies promoting rural lending, deposit mobilization, SME financing, and rural banking infrastructure are vital for inclusive and sustainable growth. It recommended that government and financial institutions design tailored loan schemes for rural communities, strengthen incentives for rural savings, and expand SME credit through credit guarantees and concessional financing. Moreover, expanding banking infrastructure through both physical branches and digital platforms was emphasized as essential for bridging the financial access gap.
Sustainability Goal and Women Empowerment through Women Education and Microcredit Facility in Pakistan
The purpose of the study is to explore the objective such as Sustainability goals and women empowerment through women education and women empowerment’s role in country development. To attain the objective of the study, we used the primary data through questionnaire collected from women located in Pakistan that attain the micro-credit facility. The Smart Partial least squares (PLS) method is used as method of estimation in the study. Our findings show that microfinance credit services have significant positive relationship with women empowerment. The microfinance credit services have significant positive relationship with women education. The women education has significant positive relationship with women empowerment. Moreover, our results indicating the significant positive mediating relationship of women education. We concluded that the microfinance credit along with education improve the women empowerment because the education is the integral part to decide the investment decision accurately that boost the women empowerment with credit facility. Moreover, this study advocated the significant implications for investors, government and legislators to improve the women empowerment in the country that leads to economic development. Investors make investment in microcredit to facilitate the women through education and can protect the investment with secure repayment pattern.
Patents and Economic Growth in Morocco: Empirical Evidence From ARDL Bounds Testing
This study examines the short- and long-term relationship between innovation, measured by patent filings, and economic growth in Morocco over the period 2004–2023, using disaggregated quarterly data. After confirming the presence of mixed integration orders and a cointegration relationship using the bounds test, the ARDL model was estimated, supplemented by an error correction model (ECM) to analyse short-term dynamics. The empirical results reveal that, in the long term, patents have a positive and significant effect on GDP, while education and population growth have a negative impact; FDI and ERD are not decisive factors. In the short term, innovation and FDI support growth, while GFCF and immediate education have negative effects, offset by a favorable delayed effect of education. Empirical evidence suggests the need for integrated policies promoting innovation, matching training and employment, and managing demographic transition in order to support sustainable growth.
Determinants of Fourth Industrial Revolution Technology Adoption in Zimbabwean State Universities: A TechnologyOrganization-Environment Framework Analysis
This study investigates the determinants of Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) technology utilisation in Zimbabwean state universities using the Technology–Organisation–Environment (TOE) framework. A quantitative research design was adopted, using structured questionnaires to collect data from 163 respondents across seven public universities. Data analysis involved descriptive statistics, reliability testing, exploratory factor analysis, and multiple regression. Findings reveal that all three TOE dimensions significantly predict 4IR utilisation (p < 0.001). Technological readiness, especially perceived ease of use, tool availability, and usefulness was the strongest driver. Organisational factors, including leadership commitment and digital culture, were also critical, while environmental enablers such as supportive policy and stakeholder collaboration showed a weaker but significant effect. Demographic results indicated high educational attainment and awareness of 4IR, yet persistent disparities in access, particularly among students. The study underscores the need for integrated strategies that combine infrastructure investment, institutional capacity building, and enabling policy frameworks. It contributes to TOE literature in resource-constrained higher education systems and offers practical insights for advancing digital transformation in the Global South.
Fintech Adoption Dynamics in Morocco and their Implications for Organisational Performance and Financial Market Responsiveness
This study investigates the determinants and consequences of financial technology adoption within the Moroccan context, with a particular focus on its role and contribution to organisational performance and financial market reactions. Relying on structural equation modelling, our analysis is based on data collected from a sample composed of various profiles, notably professionals. The conceptual model integrates technological, psychological and structural variables, stakeholder involvement, and risk perception. The results support the importance of all the endogenous variables and their influences on the adoption of technological innovations, with significant P values. In fact, the involvement of stakeholders emerged as the most critical determinant, with a path coefficient of 0.825 and a highly significant P value of 0.000, confirming the strength of this relationship. On the other hand, risk perception had no significant effect on fintech adoption, with a P value of 0.272, which is statistically above the significance threshold. Conversely, fintech adoption has a highly significant and positive effect on both organisational performance and financial market reactions, confirming its strategic role in creating value and improving competitiveness. These results highlight that integrating fintech depends on an innovative and structured ecosystem, whereas cybersecurity and regulation remain essential, although perceived risk is not a fundamental barrier in the context studied.
Income Tax, Household Consumption in South Africa: A QARDL Approach
This study empirically investigates the effect of Pay As You Earn (PAYE) tax on household consumption in South Africa by employing the Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lag (QARDL) model, using annual time series data from 1994 to 2023 obtained from the South African Reserve Bank (SARB). The QARDL analysis reveals that, in the long run, the PAYE tax is statistically insignificant across the lower, middle, and upper quantiles. However, household disposable income is statistically significant and positively associated with household consumption in all quantiles over the long run. In terms of unemployment, the results show that it is statistically insignificant in the lower quantiles (0.10 and 0.25), while it becomes statistically significant in the middle quantiles (0.40, 0.50, and 0.60), as well as in the 0.75 upper quantile, with a negative coefficient. However, in the 0.90 upper quantile, unemployment is statistically insignificant. In the short run, PAYE tax is statistically significant in the lower quantiles (0.10 and 0.25), middle quantiles (0.40, 0.50, and 0.60), and the 0.75 upper quantile. This implies that an increase in PAYE tax leads to a decrease in household consumption. In contrast, at the 0.90 upper quantile, PAYE tax is statistically insignificant. Based on these findings, the study recommends that the government should consider reducing PAYE tax for low- and middle-household consumers to boost short-run household consumption. Additionally, enhancing disposable income and reducing unemployment through targeted policies can support long-term consumption growth.
Macroeconomic Impacts of FDI Inflows: An Empirical Analysis from South Africa
This study evaluates macroeconomic impacts of FDI inflows on South Africa (SA) economy. The study employed Johansen cointegration test, block exogeneity test and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to evaluate the variables spanning over 1986-2021. It has been demonstrated that there is a unidirectional causal relationship between export and economic growth, an increase in exports (EXP) causes a rise in SA's economic growth. Economic growth and REXR were found to be causally related, indicating that higher Real Exchange Rate (REXR) values correspond to higher economic growth. Moreover, there is no correlation between FDI inflows and economic expansion. On the other hand, looking at the non-significant levels between External debt (EXTD) and CGDP indicates that the stock of external debt does not drive growth in SA. The study recommends a standardized export agency should be established to oversee the exportable units, their quality, and the standardization of goods and services, necessitating the implementation of an efficient export policy.
Do Remittances Boost Productivity? Asymmetric Evidence from Leading Asian Recipient Countries
This study attempts to examine the asymmetric effect of remittances on total factor productivity (TFP) growth in India, China, and the Philippines over 1982–2023 using a nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) benchmark specification that decomposes remittances into positive and negative shocks. The long-run nonlinear estimates show that TFP responses to remittances are state-dependent rather than uniform. Remittance adverse shocks have no significant effect in any country, suggesting that downturns are cushioned by countercyclical remitting, coping mechanisms, and diversified financing. Remittance positive shocks, however, are decisive: in India and China they boost TFP by easing liquidity constraints and supporting human and physical capital formation, while in the Philippines they reduce TFP through Dutch-disease effects, as inflows appreciate the exchange rate, shift resources to non-tradables, and weaken productivity gains. Thus, while India and China should channel remittance surges into productive investment to enhance TFP, the Philippines needs policies that curb Dutch-disease pressures and redirect inflows toward tradables, skills, and technology.
The Determinants of Renewable Electricity Share in a Just Energy Transition: An ARDL Analysis of Economic, Emissions, and Energy Access Factors
The urgent need to shift to sustainable energy systems is critical for South Africa, where deep-rooted fossil fuel reliance coincides with significant socio-economic and environmental issues. Although the potential of renewable electricity for promoting decarbonization and inclusive development is acknowledged, the macroeconomic and institutional factors influencing its share in a just energy transition are still inadequately examined. This study examines the changing interactions among economic growth, carbon emissions, and energy access in shaping South Africa’s share of renewable electricity. Utilizing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing method, the analysis reflects both short-term dynamics and long-term equilibrium relations among the chosen variables. The findings indicate a statistically significant positive relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and the proportion of renewable electricity, implying that environmental decline could stimulate investments in renewables through regulatory or financial motivators. On the contrary, both GDP per capita and access to electricity show negative relationships with the share of renewable electricity, emphasizing the ongoing reliance on fossil-fuel-driven growth and centralized energy access approaches. These results reveal systemic compromises among economic growth, increased energy accessibility, and environmental sustainability. Policy suggestions highlight the incorporation of decentralized renewables into electrification initiatives, alignment of industrial strategies with green growth objectives, and enhanced institutional collaboration to promote South Africa's equitable transition agenda. Future studies ought to broaden to comparative panel analyses throughout the Southern African area and include distributive justice metrics to guide fair energy policy development.
Sustainable Financial Performance in the Age of AI: Opportunities and Challenges
This study investigates the role of artificial intelligence (AI) in shaping sustainable financial performance by exploring both the opportunities and challenges of AI adoption in the financial sector. It highlights AI’s potential to enhance fraud detection, financial reporting, accessibility of financial services, and investor trust while also addressing concerns around ethics, regulatory gaps, algorithmic bias, and data privacy. A quantitative research design was adopted using survey data collected from 200 finance professionals across auditing, financial services, education, banking, investment, and energy sectors. The study applied descriptive statistics, exploratory factor analysis (EFA) to examine the impact of AI opportunities and challenges on sustainable financial performance and reliability tests using Cronbach’s alpha to ensure internal consistency of the scales. The results demonstrate that AI integration significantly strengthens fraud detection, improves financial reporting transparency, and enhances investor confidence through proactive disclosures. These findings validate the signaling effect of AI-related transparency on firm performance. However, empirical evidence also confirms that ethical dilemmas, regulatory fragmentation, data privacy risks, and algorithmic bias remain critical barriers to sustainable AI adoption. While opportunities strongly align with improved financial performance, challenges undermine stakeholder trust and limit equitable integration. The study is limited to survey responses from finance professionals in selected industries, which may restrict generalizability across global contexts. Additionally, the cross-sectional design prevents assessment of long-term causal effects. This research contributes by bridging the gap between AI innovation and sustainable finance literature. It extends signaling, stakeholder, and technology acceptance theories, showing how AI disclosures act as strategic signals of credibility and long-term value creation.