Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Thi, Ha Tran
Author-Name-First: Ha Tran
Author-Name-Last: Thi
Author-Email: thienha1111@gmail.com
Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Mathematical Economics, National Economic University, Hanoi, Vietnam
Author-Name: Nguyen, Quang Dong
Author-Name-First: Quang Dong
Author-Name-Last: Nguyen
Author-Email: tranha@neu.edu.vn
Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Mathematical Economics, National Economic University, Hanoi, Vietnam
Author-Name: Le, Anh Duc
Author-Name-First: Anh Duc
Author-Name-Last: Le
Author-Email: tranha@neu.edu.vn
Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Mathematical Economics, National Economic University, Hanoi, Vietnam
Title: The Asymmetric Impact of Exchange Rate Changes on Bilateral Trade between Vietnam and the US: Does the COVID-19 Pandemic Matter?
Abstract: This study examines the relationship between the exchange rate and the Vietnam-US trade balance by employing a combination of Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) approaches with disaggregated data from 21 industries from 2008 to 2022. The findings reveal that, in both ARDL and NARDL models, a real Vietnamese Dong (VND) depreciation does not significantly impact on the aggregated trade balance in the long-run. The results provide evidence of an asymmetric impact of the real exchange rate on the trade balance. These findings also suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic may have induced structural breaks in the relationship between exchange rates and trade balances, leading to increased sensitivity of trade balances to exchange rate movements.
Keywords: ARDL, NARDL, Exchange Rate, Trade Balance, COVID-19, Vietnam, US
Journal: International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues
Pages: 386-396
Volume: 15
Issue: 1
Year: 2024
Month: 12
DOI: 10.32479/ijefi.17607
File-URL: https://econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/download/17607/8510
File-Format: application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:v:15:y:2024:i:1:id:17607