Review of Energy Transition Pathways Modeling

Elnur T. Mekhdiev, Nursafa G. Khairullina, Alexandr S. Vereshchagin, Elena V. Takmakova, Olga M. Smirnova


This article discusses how quantitative modeling of energy scenarios for transition towards sustainable energy can be made more realistic, by taking into account insights and concepts from the related literature on modeling of complex dynamic energy systems with higher shares of variable renewable energy. The proposition is that an enriched modeling approach would focus not just on deployment of technologies, but also on feedback loops, learning processes, policy and governance, behavioral changes, linkages between energy and other economic sectors, and infrastructure development. In this context, application of system dynamics modeling for energy transitions analysis is introduced. The use of causal loop diagrams provides a conceptual framework for this type of modeling, illustrating endogenous approach of system dynamics modeling and its ability to capture co-evolution of economic, policy, technology, and behavioral factors over long term.

Keywords: energy scenarios; energy system modeling; sustainable development

JEL Classification: O14, O33, Q43, Q47, Q55


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