Expanded Implementation of Solar Photovoltaics: Forecasting and Risk Assessment

Bura Ahmetzhanov, Kashamida Tazhibekova, Aigerim Shametova, Abay Urazbekov

Abstract


This research is a forecast of solar photovoltaics (PV) implementation made for a period through to 2030. The leading factors of PV development that were included into the forecast model are the price for PV modules, the efficiency of silicon solar panels, the price of lithium-ion batteries, the price of lithium and the silicon PV module manufacture. The model is based on the calculations made for the coefficients of correlation between the installed capacity and economic factors. The ARIMA forecasting method was applied to generate forecasts for each factor and installed capacity riding on specific factor’s back. The calculated coefficients show a strong correlation between the installed capacity and the above listed factors. According to the generated forecasts, the efficiency factor will reach an abstract limit of 30% by 2030. Investments in photovoltaics will increase up to 70%; this is 10% higher than current level.

Keywords: Photovoltaics (PV), Forecasting, Risk Assessment of PV Implementation, PV power, Correlation Coefficients

JEL Classifications: A11; B41; C01


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